Iran's presidential elections this weekend made for good political drama and came with a surprising twist. Contrary to earlier forecasts, Hassan Rohani managed to overcome his five conservative opponents and was elected Iran's new president in the first round.
Rohani is the only cleric among the candidates, but is also the moderate among them. He benefitted from the resignation of the two other reformist candidates on the eve of the elections and was able to reap the fruit of being the sole representative for the reformists facing an increasingly split conservative camp. The support he received from former Iranian presidents, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, proved to be very helpful as well.
Rohani became the default choice for the reformist camp and their supporters in Iran. All in all this is a clergyman who previously served in key positions in the Islamic republic and was a former representative for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran's nuclear talks with the West between 2003 and 2005. Still, his demeanor and his remarks during the showdown with his rival candidates showed refreshing and promising signs. The emphasis on recovering from a destroyed economy and placing public welfare at the top of the agenda were well received and gave the impression that the "eight bad years of [outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad" were over.
Rohani's criticism of Ahmadinejad and the other conservative candidates for their policy of belligerent defiance against the West and the resulting painful consequences pointed to a different kind of diplomacy.
The real hero of these elections was the Iranian public. The rally behind Rohani's candidacy during the weeks before the elections is clear proof that despite the fears of the ruling party's actions and of voter fraud similar to the last elections, which secured Ahmadinejad's second term, the Iranian public is determined to have its voice heard. The riveting activity and comments on the internet and blogosphere before and during the elections teaches us that, despite knowing its limits in the Iranian political game, the Iranian public is determined to express its opinions and influence as much as it can.
Khamenei made sure not to make his choice publicly known and it appeared that the regime did not want to alienate the populace by showing a preference for one candidate or another. The fact that voter turnout was high and there were no "Iranian Spring" riots was a sigh of relief for the regime, which sought to present a democratic proceeding and hoped that the riots which broke out after the election fraud in 2009 -- would not return.
As such, Rohani's election is also a warning sign from the people to the ayatollah regime.
With all that said, will this spell a change for Iran's nuclear program and relations with the West and Israel? If he opts for different tactics, Rohani is intrinsically connected to the regime and thus its hard to believe he will take up a stance that opposes the supreme leader. He is indebted to the tens of millions who voted for him and its fair to assume he will dedicate his efforts to internal affairs and seek to fix the social and economic structures.
In 2003, after Iran's nuclear program was revealed, Rohani was head of the negotiating team for the nuclear talks with the West under then-President Khatami. During those talks compromises were made and uranium enrichment was even halted as a trust building step and to avoid sanctions. During his election campaign, Rohani attacked Ahmadinejad on numerous occasions, declaring, "We will not let the last eight years continue."
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