Everyone is trying to read the mind of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu these days.
Is the Likud leader, known for his strident opposition to the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, truly ready to go down in history as the Israeli prime minister under whose watch a Palestinian state was established west of the Jordan River?
The answer is unclear. On one hand, Netanyahu has expressed support for the two-state solution numerous times over the past few years. And perhaps more significantly, Netanyahu has also recently begun to sound the alarm about the dangers of a binational state in which a Jewish majority wouldn't be guaranteed.
Yet on the other hand, Netanyahu has refused to accept, at least publicly, the pre-1967 borders as the basis for a Palestinian state, despite the fact that any logical division of the land would use those lines, give or take some land swaps to accommodate for Israel keeping the main settlement blocs and the Jewish neighborhoods of east Jerusalem.
Also, Netanyahu's current governing coalition includes Naftali Bennett's Habayit Hayehudi party, which is virulently opposed to Palestinian statehood, not to mention the many Likud and Yisrael Beytenu members who are also against the idea.
Netanyahu is falsely portrayed by the international media as an extreme right-wing stalwart. In reality, Netanyahu is far more pragmatic than he is given credit for by many of his critics. A far-right ideologue wouldn't have implemented the ten-month settlement construction freeze in late 2009, or released over 1,000 imprisoned Palestinian terrorists in exchange for Gilad Schalit in October 2011 or refrained from sending ground forces into the Gaza Strip during Operation Pillar of Defense last November.
Netanyahu has been prime minister for longer than anyone in Israeli history except for David Ben-Gurion, yet Israel hasn't fought any full-scale wars under him. When it comes to defense and diplomacy, Netanyahu has proven to be a judicious and practical decision-maker.
During Netanyahu's time as prime minister, he has shown deftness at maintaining the status quo while protecting Israel's security. Due to the vagaries of the Middle East, preserving a safe status quo is often the preferable option. But given Netanyahu's recent statements about the threat of a binational state, it appears he has come to understand that the current status quo vis-à-vis the Palestinians can't last forever.
Everything in Netanyahu's background indicates that security is the most important issue for him. If Netanyahu can get the ironclad security guarantees that he seeks, he may show more territorial flexibility than many expect.
The chances of a final-status Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement being reached in the near future are low. The history of Palestinian obstinacy is long and sordid. But for numerous geopolitical reasons, it was vital that Israel engage in a new effort to bring the conflict with the Palestinians to an end.
If (and it's a big if) there is a deal to be had with the Palestinians, will Netanyahu ultimately be willing to sign it? That's the $64,000 (or 229,000 shekel) question in Israel right now. If, by surprise, negotiations go well in the coming months, we may find out the answer.
The writer is an Israel Hayom English Edition editor.
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