Watching, and waiting

Just like two years ago, it has been hard to stop watching the images coming in from Tahrir Square over the past few days. The power, the strength, the organized chaos, the determination -- it's as if the revolution that ousted Hosni Mubarak in 2011 and the election that brought Mohammed Morsi to power last year never happened.

But that is where the similarities end. While the 2011 revolution was one of hope, the Egyptian masses today are driven by despair. Under Morsi, poverty and unemployment have grown, as has the level of frustration of the Egyptian people. The Tahrir youth are angry not just because they were lied to when they were told that things would get better, but also because of something else they consider to be a crime -- Egypt's rapid slide into Islamism. Their clear concern, which manifested itself in social media discourse and motivated many to take to the streets, is that if the Islamic wave is not stopped now, it will never be stopped.

This also explains the quick and unequivocal intervention of the Egyptian military in the situation. The current generation of Egyptian generals was educated in the West, speaks English and aspires to progress. Egypt's generals have no interest in the clock being pushed back 40 years and they don't want to see the Egyptian government mimic Turkey by ousting military leaders and replacing them with "our people" (namely, Islamists). Like the masses in the streets, Egypt's generals realized that tomorrow could be too late and thus decided to act now.

Still, as of Tuesday night, analysts believed the Egyptian military would not permit a full revolution to take place. Amid all the turmoil, the military has maintained its irreproachable status in the eyes of the Egyptian people. But the military fears that if it violently seizes control of the country, both the moderate and the Islamist camps will turn against it. The most likely scenario is that the military will seek a compromise that includes an agreed-upon removal of Morsi from power and the appointment of an interim council that will rule the country until a general election is held to choose a new president.

That was the spirit of the messages sent on Tuesday to Cairo from the U.S., which is desperately trying to restore its status in the region after two years of a stuttering policy. The U.S. is concerned that further chaotic violence in Egypt will bolster extremists elements in that country and radiate throughout the Middle East.

Israel shares America's fears. While Morsi was hostile toward Israel, he acted with determination against Hamas and other terrorist groups. This often served Israel's interests. The Egyptian government under Morsi may have been outwardly cold toward Israel, but close working relationships and impressive strategic cooperation were maintained behind the scenes. As long as the Egyptian military remains involved in matters, it is likely that these ties will be preserved. But nothing should be taken for granted. Just like in 2011, it is prudent not to make assumptions about what will emerge from the current unrest in Egypt. But, as in Syria, it is best for Israel to make sure it stays out of the game.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו