The Tahrir revolution had many objectives, but one of them -- commonly known as democracy -- was above them all. But throughout their struggle to achieve this lofty goal the secular youth, who began the revolt, granted control of the government to the military -- and later, at the ballot box, to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Two and a half years have passed and the Egypt of today is no longer on the precipice of a revolution, rather a civil war. The protests scheduled for this Sunday, initiated by the opposition, move Egypt to the edge of the volcano. The lava, if God forbid it erupts, will spare no one.
The Muslim Brotherhood, with the support of the street, has democratically won every possible election since the November 2011 parliamentary race, with the pinnacle on June 30, 2012, when Mohammed Morsi was sworn in as president. Since then, he and his brothers have only led Egypt down a path of diminishing power -- politically, economically and socially. For certain sectors of the population, Morsi is even proving to be worse than Mubarak. Some 18 million Egyptians have already signed a petition calling for him to step down.
Paradoxically, Washington is giving Morsi today what it never gave Mubarak: U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson is telling an opposition hungry to topple Morsi that he is not Mubarak because he won in free elections. From her perspective, it's preferable to wait until the next elections.
Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood's victories have exacerbated Egypt's political and legislative paralysis. The national referendum over amending the constitution, as well as parliamentary and presidential elections, have not solidified the Brotherhood's rule. Quite the opposite is true. With gas and wheat prices continually rising and power outages as routine as the overflowing crime in the streets, it is no surprise that the election results are still relevant in Washington, but far less so for a large portion of Egypt's 85 million people.
Morsi believes that Sunday's demonstration is merely an attempt by the liberal minority to overthrow him. His admission this week to making "mistakes" is a testament to the intense pressure he is facing. One of his biggest mistakes, for example, was butting heads wit the judiciary, which only proved to his people that Egypt replaced a secular dictator with a religious one. It is rather ironic that Mubarak's legacy (his war against the Muslim Brotherhood) is now the tip of the liberal camp's sword.
Morsi's second mistake was clashing with the armed forces. That's how it goes when you rise so far so quickly.
Morsi is struggling to find supporters today in an Egypt on the brink of boiling over. Clerics from Al-Azhar mosque, the leading religious authority in the country, have given the demonstrations the green light. The Copts are showing no desire to help him, and even the Salafists -- his natural allies who won a quarter of the seats in parliament -- yearn to succeed him because in their view every Egyptian is by nature a religious person.
In Cairo, however, there are rumors of the Muslim Brotherhood operating Islamic militias, prepared for battle in the style of the Iranian Basij. If the rumors are true, Sunday could prove to be especially violent, much like Ireland's "Bloody Sunday" after the execution of British spies.
To be fair, the word "democracy" has never rolled off the Muslim Brotherhood's tongue naturally. There were those who warned against this in advance. Like in Israel, for example. Apparently the final curtain has yet to fall over Tahrir Square.
What can we expect in the next round of upheaval? And of course, what will the army do? It has stayed neutral thus far and has already declared it will intervene if the situation deteriorates into total chaos. The military, in contrast to the people, has something to lose. To say that the military does not like Morsi very much is also fair to say.
On Sunday, Morsi will celebrate the one-year anniversary of his government. A "happy birthday to you, Dr. Morsi," this will not be. The burning lava will erupt; the main question is only how far it will reach.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו