The festival of hope following the presidential election victory in Iran of the moderate religious candidate, Hassan Rohani, is understandable -- the world loves a good story. We do, too. The world also likes science-fiction movies.
Iran's new moderate president, who preaches world peace, is an easy finalist to win the science-fiction category, even against "Star Wars." This perhaps explains why the Obama administration and many analysts here in Israel share the same view. After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt ruined their spring, Rohani is making their summer seem bright.
The headlines tell us Rohani will get a chance from the United States. A chance? And what exactly have the duo of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad received from Washington ever since nuclear negotiations in Geneva were renewed? Have the superpowers' meetings with Iran not been a part of a global dialogue? Rohani is not getting an opportunity, rather a deadline extension. The elections in Iran have not bought time only for Tehran, but for Washington as well.
This explains Jerusalem's wariness. Only a very irresponsible Israeli government would remain silent in the face of some of the comments being made in the aftermath of the elections in Iran. Contrary to Syria, where our silence is actually golden, on Iran someone had to get up and scream, "The king is naked."
What needs to worry us is that Ali Khamenei, the spiritual leader of the Islamic republic who has fought for his regime's survival for 24 years now, is not the only one who should be happy that Rohani defeated his six rivals. Obama should also be happy. Rohani's victory came with impeccable timing for the U.S. president. After the elections in the U.S. and Iran the time has come to make a decision about Iran's nuclear program, and the last thing Obama wants to do is act. It is quite suitable for people -- some for political reasons (Israeli analysts) and others for ideological reasons (Obama) -- to tell us why Rohani signifies an opportunity.
Khamenei and Obama cannot change. The former is programmed for war, the latter for peace (and Obama even has certification). To each their own DNA. One preaches about global polarization, the other about a world in which everyone loves everyone. Khamenei despises what the West represents; Obama is convinced he can make a hole in any wall of hatred.
Khamenei will not wake up tomorrow morning and change his mind. Neither will Obama. Rohani allows both of them to hold onto their beliefs because he wears both hats -- as the president of Iran and as the peddler of fantasies.
Israel marked a considerable victory on the Iranian front by making it a global problem. It did this through years of effort -- discreetly, but also by screaming out loud on occasion. Both rightist and leftist governments in Israel recognized the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program. Ahmadinejad undoubtedly helped us greatly these past eight years, and were it not for his outbursts of Holocaust denial we could even thank him.
But things were not always this way. President Shimon Peres, during his tenure as foreign minister, remembers this well. He can recall the voices from his visits to Paris in the 1990s and early 2000s telling him the Iranian threat was nothing more than Israeli paranoia. Until one morning the world finally woke up.
At first it was the Europeans, who sent the troika (Britain, France and Germany) for a series of meetings in Tehran. Ask the French about the sour taste the Iranians left in their mouths. One must keep in mind that at that time the moderate Khatami was Iran's president and American forces had invaded neighboring Iraq -- ample reasons for Iran to understand that suspending (not canceling, God forbid) its nuclear program was in its best interest. Incidentally, it was Rohani who was in charge of these talks. If Iran ultimately acquires a nuclear bomb he will have played a role from the start.
In the wake of the economic sanctions, Iran's economy is in shambles. Iran understands that the sword near its throat is real. The regime in Tehran, however, precisely like the regime in Damascus, is seeing a leaderless world and Russia exploiting every opening.
And war, even if justified, has become a dirty word. What, then, is there to do? Send the good soldier, Rohani, to the front and everyone is happy. Then you expel the one kid from class who ruins the party for everyone because he sees that the king is naked.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו