Rohani: Khamenei's friendly facade

All in all, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could not have wished for a better outcome in the presidential election: While the victor is the "moderate" candidate Hassan Rohani, he is still a close ally and one of the founding fathers of the Islamic Revolution.

The high voter turnout showcased a democracy at its best and bestowed trust in the system and the regime.

There were no riots this time around, unlike the reaction to the disputed 2009 elections. Instead, there were celebrations.

Iran's ugly face for the past eight years -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- will now be replaced with a new promising figure that flashes a pleasant, reassuring smile. Khamenei could not have chosen a better façade.

On Friday, we recalled how the world was shocked at the outcome of the 1997 elections, when a moderate cleric by the name of Mohammad Khatami became president. At the time, CNN called his election a vote of no-confidence in the Islamic Revolution. Now we have 1997 all over again. Rohani's victory is undoubtedly a brilliant public relations stunt. It may seem forced, but it is a stunt nonetheless.

The State Department will now try to decipher what the election means and size-up the new president-elect. Meanwhile, the centrifuges will spin round and round until they reach dangerous enrichment levels.

If it was up to him, Khamenei would have had his chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili win. But the world is changing, and so is Iran. No, not the Iranian regime, but the Iranian street. Khamenei is well-aware of these shifting sands and the ongoing turmoil in the Arab world.

In 2011, Khamenei came to the realization that the only way to shield his regime from another outburst of protests, and possibly even save Syria as well, was to let the people have a greater say and effectively keep a hands-off approach when the election results come in.

Rohani has never been an active reformist nor was he a member of the Green Movement that took to the streets in 2009. And unlike the reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi who was denied the presidency in 2009, he has a very good rapport with Khamenei.

Rohani's presidency will be fraught with challenges: On the one hand, he has to pick up the pieces of a shattered economy, and on the other hand, he has to make progress in the nuclear program. How do you achieve both goals? You make a tactical about-face vis-à-vis the West. For Khamenei, this is the most promising path he could take, with a smile. Not his smile, of course. He can't do that. His president's smile.

Since the 2013 election has striking similarities with the outcome of the 1997 campaign, we would be well-advised to revisit the talks between Iran and the West in 2003. Iran knew when to halt uranium enrichment (in the wake of Operation Iraqi Freedom) and when to revert back to such activity at a more opportune moment (when the U.S. became embroiled in the Iraqi quagmire).

Imagine Iran was not an alcohol-free country. After watching the election returns, Rohani and Khamenei probably would have sat together and celebrated with some of the best scotch available -- a tribute to the time Rohani spent in Glasgow as a Ph.D. student.

One day, Iran will see change. Salvation will come, not from the ballot box but rather from the people.

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