Former Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin dropped a bomb at the Institute for National Security Studies on Tuesday with his statement that by this summer Iran will certainly cross the red line drawn by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding its nuclear program. Yadlin said Iran could reach nuclear breakout capacity by around the time of Iranian elections in June. The situation is supremely complicated. On the one hand, the Iranians are developing threatening capabilities. On the other, they could divert some of the dangerous materials to civilian projects, thus postponing their decision on whether to assemble a nuclear bomb. But most of the material diverted to civilian projects could later be reallocated for military use, Yadlin said. If Iran decides to build a nuclear bomb, the whole world will know. Former National Security Adviser Uzi Dayan said on Tuesday that Iran couldn't keep such a decision secret, even if there were no International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on Iranian soil. During Yadlin's time as the head of Military Intelligence (2006-2010), he was known to hold the view that Israeli military action was preferable to accepting a nuclear Iran, but the time for a decision had not yet arrived. On Tuesday, he said that the time for a decision is now imminent. Yadlin's statements on Iran dovetailed those of the head of the Military Intelligence Research Branch, Brig. Gen. ltay Baron, who said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has used lethal chemical weapons against his opponents -- most probably sarin gas. This is not debatable, even though the U.S. prefers for a shadow of doubt to remain, so it won't be compelled to fulfill President Barack Obama's promise to respond with force against the criminal use of chemical weapons. There is a connection between the Iranian nuclear program and the events in Syria. If the U.S. doesn't back up its threats regarding the Assad regime in Damascus, who can count on the free world to be more aggressive and determined regarding the Iranian regime in Tehran (which also ignores Obama's threats)? This complicates the dialogue that is meant to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Obama and U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who was in Israel this week, see their red lines eroding in Syria and apparently Iran, but they prefer to act like they are color blind. They may not see or acknowledge what is going on, but who in the world doesn't understand the real picture? Israel is hesitant to act independently in the face of international opposition. Israel has also been softened by the arrival of a new weapons package, sent with love from Washington to the Israel Defense Forces. Yadlin and other analysts like him believe that Iran is getting closer to producing nuclear weapons, but won't do so as long as Obama is in power. Iran could wait until the next president is in office to make its move. Israel's position needs to take into account the new realities. Should Israel encourage actions to prevent Iran's centrifuges from spinning or should it refrain from any activities in which there is no cooperation from Western powers- Israel's decision becomes more difficult with each passing day. Yadlin pointed out on Tuesday that the time to make the decision is now closer than ever before.
