The tension on the Korean peninsula continues. Everyone is waiting to see what North Korea will do on April 15, the birthday of the country's Stalinist founding father, Kim Il Sung. The South Korean military is on alert and subway stations in Seoul have been readied for use as shelters if needed. But people in Seoul don't like to talk about this. Calm is good for business and people in Seoul like business, not war. No frightened foreigners arrived at the international airport near Seoul after North Korea's "recommendation" that they leave South Korea. Quite to the contrary, new tourists kept streaming in. However, North Korean newscasters continue to sound resolute, prompting South Korea to keep its guard up. "The psychological warfare used by North Korea regarding foreigners won't help it, as foreigners living in South Korea have full faith in our military," South Korean presidential spokeswoman Kim Haing said. In fact, it is North Korea that has lost tourists, as Chinese groups canceled trips due to the security situation. The border between South Korea and North Korea remains quiet. South Korean and American troops are highly visible on the southern side. The trucks supposed to go to the Kaesong industrial park stand idle by the border, waiting for developments. "I don't know what to do," truck driver Jong Sa told me. "This is a situation that can't continue forever. I hope there is someone who truly knows how this story will end." No villagers could be seen on the northern side of the border, much to the chagrin of tourists waiting with cameras on the southern side. How will the current round of escalation end? It is widely believed that North Korea will likely conduct a missile test in the coming days. South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se expressed this assessment on Wednesday. Two Musudan missiles, with a range of up to 4,000 kilometers (around 2,500 miles) have been positioned in eastern North Korea, threatening the island of Guam, where there are thousands of U.S. soldiers and a B-52 bomber base. North Korea certainly has the capability to launch these Musudan missiles. Just to be safe, Japan has deployed Patriot anti-missile batteries and hopes that the U.S. will provide real-time intelligence on any missile launch, such as it did during the North Korean missile tests in 2006. On the face of things, a North Korean missile launch could be viewed as a escalatory step, but it also could be a solution to the current crisis. A senior Western diplomat in Seoul told me on Wednesday that "a missile test could certainly be something that the U.S. and South Korea accept and enables Kim Jong Un to come down from the tree he climbed." The South Korean paper Joongang Daily painted a more dire picture on Wednesday. Its analysts said North Korea wouldn't be satisfied with a single missile test and would also launch Scud and Rodong missiles, with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers (around 620 miles). Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia agrees with the U.S. stance on North Korea, despite the ties that exist between Moscow and Pyongyang. Meanwhile, South Korea is also accusing North Korea of being responsible for last month's cyberattack on South Korean banks and media outlets. More than 48,000 computers were harmed during the March 20 attack. As of now, this was probably the only tangible damage caused to South Korea by North Korea recently. Will all hell break loose in northeastern Asia or will there only be a North Korean missile test? Only coming hours or days will tell. April 15 could be the date that solves the riddle. Kim Jong Un greatly reveres his grandfather, they say.
