Israel's position right before the flow of natural gas begins from the Tamar field drilling, is like that of a family that just won the lottery. Statistics show that most of these families lose all their winnings in a short period of time, and that is exactly what we must prevent. Therefore the state should estate rules regarding the use of the new bounty. With regards to divvying up the revenue, there should be a clear preference to cover defense-related expenses that arise given the new need to protect the gas pipeline assets. The rest should be invested in fields that would reap fruit even after the gas has run dry, and we must resist the temptation to provide populist freebies at the future's expense. Another item no less important is the question of who will get to use this gas. On the one hand, we have the owners of the drilling rights, including numerous foreign companies mostly from the U.S., which will demand exporting the gas at the highest possible price. It's not only in their interest, it is their duty to their stock holders, to produce the highest possible dividend each quarter. On the other hand we have Israeli citizens, whose interests are opposite to those of the private drillers. The supply is estimated to last between 20 and 30 years, and it is in the interest of each citizen not involved with the drilling companies to see that resource used as long as possible. Between the two sides stands the government, also with two conflicting interests. On the one hand, it has a stake in ramping up annual gas sales, and would enjoy the revenues that the Sheshinski Committee secured for it; on the other hand, there is its supposedly equal interest in serving the public. The second interest is much weaker, as immediately after the gas revenues go up, the state will fall under political pressure to increase its day-to-day expenditures, investments that don't take the future into account, like reducing taxes, increasing benefits and handing out perks. The temptation to increase the usage of the gas revenue for those needs and increase the national budget is a force to be reckoned with, as politicians are held accountable for immediate results, and therefore they will push to export immediately and as much gas as possible. The right course of action for the middle and definitely the long term is not to export the gas at all for commercial purposes. Instead, there should be a push to increase the usage of gas to make products for export. For example: petroleum products, paper and other items that require energy to be produced. If performed with the right mix of a good education system and promotion of industrial research and development, it would result in revenue that would be many-fold higher than exporting gas alone, and result in improving the national infrastructure. Implementing this strategy would get those who want to utilize cheap gas to invest in the Israeli economy and its manufacturers.
