Will Kim Jung-un know when to stop?

Seoul has gotten used to Pyongyang crying wolf every now and then. Perhaps that is why on Saturday, not long after North Korea declared a "state of war," South Korea appeared the calmest. The rest of the world is watching the unfolding escalation in the Korean Peninsula with great concern. Not because the international community truly believes war will erupt any day now, but because North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un (30), is young and inexperienced. Would he know when to back down, like his father Kim Jong-il, or will he try to imitate his grandfather, Kim Il-sung by attacking-

North Korea's abrogation of the armistice agreement with its southern neighbor could theoretically mean that the armed conflict between the south and the north is now back, a throwback to 60 years ago. But it is quite obvious that Pyongyang does not really have the power to hit the U.S. cities it has threatened to attack with missiles, including Washington, D.C. It is also unclear what North Korea's military nuclear capabilities are. Nevertheless, it has the capacity to launch Scud missiles at U.S. targets in the Pacific Ocean. There are 28,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in South Korea and another 50,000 troops in Japan.

But Pyongyang knows full-well that a large-scale attack would result in the last standing Stalinist regime on the planet committing suicide. The fact that work at the Kaesong Industrial Park, jointly operated by South Korea and North Korea, was uninterrupted by the recent announcements, may suggest that the threats are just that, threats.

We have gotten used to belligerent rhetoric coming out of North Korea. Ever since the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement was signed at Panmunjom, a village on the border area, North Korea has had three dynastic rulers. The strategy — namely, to perpetuate an escalation — has never changed and it was particularly evident when Kim Il-sung started the war in 1950, after the Japanese Empire was crushed by the Allies in World War II. His goal was to rule a unified Korea.

Even if Western analysts believe things currently are at their worst state since that war, it is safe to assume that the combative rhetoric will not deteriorate into a military campaign. The incendiary words serve as a way of bringing Washington back to the negotiating table while simultaneously ratcheting up pressure on South Korea so that it adopts a more moderate policy. By the way, this is not the first time North Korea has announced renewed hostilities. As a general rule, every time South Korea and the U.S. hold joint exercises, the North Korean ruler has a fit.

The rhetoric also has something to do with the regime's desire to strengthen national unity and have the people rally behind the new ruler. The demonstrations in the Pyongyang city center on Saturday and the very hostile coverage of the "American imperialism" reflect that. Another point to keep in mind is that North Korea likes to test any new South Korean leader. The current South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, was just recently sworn in, on Feb. 25.

So, despite all the inflammatory rhetoric, we can safely predict that war is not in the offing. In fact, the current state of affairs is very convenient for many regional power brokers.

China, perhaps the only friend North Korea has (despite its rather cool attitude towards Kim Jong-un as of late), does not want to see the reunification of the two Koreas because that would play into the hands of Washington. Even Japan would prefer the current status quo because of its regional and economic interests are at stake, although it will not say so publicly. Perhaps this is the reason why North Korea feels it can show how tough it is every now and then but still makes sure it does not overdo it.

U.S. President Barack Obama has said he considers the Asia-Pacific region to be of critical importance. The U.S. will most likely pay increasing attention to this region along with other allies, even while the Pentagon grapples with a shrinking budget. Israelis would normally not worry about what was unfolding in a faraway land, but in this case, there is the issue of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, the man in charge of developing Iran's nuclear weapons, who was invited by the North Koreans to observe another nuclear test on Feb. 12.

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