North Korea has habituated us toward violent rhetoric. While Pyongyang has changed leaders three times since the end of the war in 1953, what hasn't changed for that particular ruling blood line has been its strategy. A policy of escalation is North Korea's natural preference, and the leaders of the most isolated country on Earth can teach international relations courses on "how to initiate crises." And yet it appears that Pyongyang, at least by its rhetoric, is now crossing all boundaries. Can anyone recall a time that a country threatened a nuclear attack against the United States? Kim Jong-un, the young leader who inherited the country from his father, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011, wants to prove to his party and people that he is indeed his father's son, and last week he raised the bar. Aside from directly threatening the U.S., North Korea cancelled the cease-fire agreement with South Korea (and shut down the open hotline the countries have shared since 1971 to avoid crises). It also tore up the historic reconciliation accord from 1991, which obligates both sides to always search for a peaceful solution. Pyongyang has also been incessantly broadcasting military parades and visits by the leadership to army bases on the national television channel. On Friday, Kim Jong-un was filmed near the maritime border with South Korea, where he announced that his country was ready for "an all-out war." As far as Pyongyang is concerned, hardening its rhetoric is a response to the expansion of sanctions, which the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to impose. Even North Korea's only friend, China, voted in favor. The North Koreans forgot to mention that the harsher sanctions were, in fact, a response to the nuclear test the third such test it conducted in February and to the ballistic missile test it conducted in December. It's reasonable to assume this time as well that the verbal violence won't boil over into a military confrontation. The West, however, is concerned nonetheless. We should keep in mind that while North Korea's relationship with South Korea has known its ups and downs since 1953, and that just as the 1991 nonviolence accord hasn't led to the long-awaited peace, their border skirmish in November 2010 (the North fired artillery salvos on Yeonpyeong Island in the South's control) didn't lead to real war either. In the West it is believed that since 1953 the current situation in the Korean Peninsula has never been as ominous, even if it's difficult to believe that North Korea would really attack the U.S. with a nuclear weapon (which would be an act of suicide on its part). Furthermore, even if the North does manage to make significant strides on the military-nuclear front, it remains unclear whether it can actually launch a nuclear warhead capable of hitting the U.S. North Korea has accustomed us to irrational behavior, according to our way of thinking. This time though, another variable has entered the equation: the generational changing of the guard in North Korea. It's very hard to assess how the new generation in the army and the party will manage the current crisis. As far as North Korea is concerned, escalation is the most effective tool with which to pressure the international community, particularly before nuclear talks are set to begin. This is the leverage it has to secure benefits from the West (food, energy, financial aid), in exchange for concessions. Muscle flexing and projecting the message that "the boss has gone mad" is the best way to garner strength before sitting down at the negotiating table, particularly in regard to its position vis-à-vis the Americans. The North's young leader is also trying to test the nerves of South Korea's new president, Park Geun-hye, who was sworn into office on February 25. Additionally, it must be mentioned that China, which plays a crucial role in restraining Pyongyang, has also changed leaders. Kim Jong-un has arranged a high-intensity crash course in international relations for himself and his new counterparts. War isn't likely to break out. The present situation suits quite a few regional players. China doesn't want to see Korean reunification because it would benefit Washington. Even Japan, though it would never admit it, prefers the status quo due to its own regional interests. Perhaps it is precisely these factors that embolden North Korea to display belligerence. One more thing: Attending North Korea's nuclear test on February 12 was Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, a senior Iranian nuclear scientist responsible for developing a nuclear weapon for his country, along with an officer from the Islamic republic's Revolutionary Guard. Here, after all, is how the story also pertains to us.
