The negotiations over the composition of Israel's 33rd government so far look like an attempt by geometry students to square a circle. But it's more complicated than that. Since Monday, there has been an air of optimism in the room where Likud-Beytenu and Habayit Hayehudi are negotiating. It is necessary to create such an impression, so that come Saturday night, President Shimon Peres will decide to give Benjamin Netanyahu a 14-day extension for negotiations. Netanyahu will most certainly get the extra time. Nevertheless, the need for it shows that a lot of time has been lost. Within Likud-Beytenu there is a growing sense that the alliance between Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett is still solid. Nevertheless, Likud-Beytenu keeps hinting to Habayit Hayehudi that it ought to drop Lapid. The bait is to offer the Housing and Construction Ministry to MK Uri Ariel. This in effect would cancel the agreement between Netanyahu and Moshe Kahlon to place Kahlon at the head of the Israel Lands Authority. Headlines suggest that Netanyahu's position on sharing the burden is getting closer to that of Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi. Even if he basically accepts their plan, with minor adjustments and changes in wording, he will hesitate to embrace it before proving to the ultra-Orthodox that he did everything in his power to defend their interests. Both sides know very well that there is nothing new to offer. The Likud is still trying to undermine the alliance between Lapid and Bennett, and the revelations about the bad blood within Habayit Hayehudi have raised hopes that Bennett might soften his stance, but so far there are no indications to that effect. There are two reasons why not. First, there is little trust between the sides. In my opinion, Netanyahu can trust Lapid and Bennett because they will not try to undermine his government in the forseeable future, even if Shas remains outside the coalition or if Shas' entry is postponed for an indeterminate amount of time. As long as both sides honor the coalition agreement, the future of such a government is ensured for two years, maybe three. The second reason is the need to decide who gets which ministerial post. This is an internal problem within the various parties, with the greatest difficulty within Likud-Beytenu. When this issue starts to move forward, we will know that a coalition agreement is near. On Tuesday night, Channel 2 presented a poll showing that if elections were held today, Likud-Beytenu would decline in power (from 31 to 28) while Yesh Atid would grow (from 19 to 24) as would Habayit Hayehudi (from 12 to 14). This is an amusing exercise, but not one that will lead to new elections. Even if the poll had shown an increase for Likud-Beytenu and a decrease for Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi, it would not be enough to push Netanyahu to new elections. For everyone wondering whether a government will be formed in time, by the middle of March, the answer is most definitely yes.
