Among Likud officials, there is growing concern that Yesh Atid will not only stick to its position in favor of an equal distribution of the national service burden, but also coordinate with Habayit Hayehudi to keep Shas out of the government. Yair Lapid is receiving information showing that his voting constituency (as well as other Israelis who share Lapid's political outlook but didn't vote for him) expect him to strive to serve in a government without the 11 MKs from Shas. This undoubtedly is what is causing him to dig in his heels and not compromise. Lapid is also sticking to his guns on the issue of financial benefits given to the ultra-Orthodox. Yesh Atid wants allowances to be granted to the haredim only until the age of 16, among other things. So while it has become customary for Yesh Atid to say that it is not anti-religious and that it has more certified rabbis on its Knesset list than Shas does, it is quite clear that Yesh Atid is on a collision course with the haredim. The success of Lapid's effort will largely depend on the strength of his coordination with Naftali Bennett. Both Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi are trying to bolster their positions ahead of the next stages of the coalition negotiations. Likud is hoping (with the help of national religious rabbis) to divide Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi, which would weaken the hand of each party at the negotiating table. At this point, Likud believes that Bennett cannot remain outside the government for a prolonged period over the national service burden issue and that isolating Lapid will bear fruit. Without Lapid, the composition of the next government could be as follows: Likud-Beytenu (31 seats), Habayit Hayehudi (12 seats), Shas (11 seats), United Torah Judaism (7 seats), Hatnuah (6 seats) and Kadima (2 seats). This coalition of 69 MKs could last, but would it be cohesive- Moreover, in the international arena, there will be growing American and European pressure for the coalition to include parties that are more interested in resuming negotiations with the Palestinians than the religious and ultra-Orthodox parties are. Tzipi Livni's Hatnuah is important, but not enough. The West wants to see Lapid in the government. There is still time for the sides to soften their stances. Top negotiators from both Likud-Beytenu and Yesh Atid assume that Netanyahu will ultimately find a way to include Lapid in the coalition. But Netanyahu already knows that he has a hot potato in his lap a choice between Yesh Atid (and perhaps Habayit Hayehudi) and Shas. It's a difficult decision.
