The election results were so surprising that it was inevitable they would cause turmoil in some of the political parties. Likud, Labor, Shas and Hatnuah will experience internal strife due to their disappointing performances. Not surprisingly, Labor is leading the way in this regard. While the other parties are waiting to see who joins the coalition, Labor knows that it will spend the next Knesset on the opposition benches. Labor leader Shelly Yachimovich's situation is particularly bad, even worse than Tzipi Livni's in the last Knesset. Livni notched an achievement in the 2009 election when her Kadima party won the most seats, after which her status started eroding. But Yachimovich does not even have any such cursory achievement to hang her hat on as she tries to fend off rivals within her party. Labor's internal squabbling has already started and it is reasonable to assume that the moderate criticism of Yachimovich that has been heard will go up an octave. Yachimovich will need a lot of luck to reimpose her authority on her party before she goes into action as the head of the opposition. Labor's constitution requires the party to hold a leadership vote no later than 14 months after a general election. Yachimovich could find herself facing outside candidates, such as former Israel Defense Forces chief of general staff Gabi Ashkenazi or former military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin. Ashkenazi's candidacy could be delayed if a police investigation is opened in the Harpaz affair. In Likud, the inevitable internal struggle has been pushed back until after the coalition is formed. It stands to reason that Yesh Atid will have to be a little flexible on its appropriate demand that the number of ministers be cut to 18, plus the prime minister. For example, a cut to 21 or 22 ministers would still be an achievement for Yair Lapid, given that the outgoing government has 32. Lapid wants the ratio to be one minister for every four coalition MKs. There is no chance this would happen, as this would leave Likud with only five ministers, plus the prime minister. A ratio of one minister for every three MKs would give Likud seven ministerial positions, plus the prime minister. At this ratio, one serving minister would still have to lose his or her spot at the cabinet table, even without adding any fresh young faces. This is a recipe for an anger-fueled internal feud. Yisrael Beytenu faces a similar scenario, as it would get only four ministerial positions at the 1:3 ratio. It is believed that if Yair Shamir doesn't get a top ministerial post, he will tire of political life. With Avigdor Lieberman relegated to the defendant's chair, expect the knives to come out in what was the most disciplined party in the Knesset over the past decade. Shas is in the same boat as Aryeh Deri did not fulfill the hopes for which he was made part of the party's leadership triumvirate. Eli Yishai and Ariel Atias will fight to curb Deri, without any inferiority complex. And in Hatnuah, Amram Mitzna and Amir Peretz will make Tzipi Livni sweat. The arithmetic shows that an earthquake took place on election day and the aftershocks are just beginning to leave their mark.
