Livni returns, with a whimper

I watched Tzipi Livni, who announced on Tuesday that she will run in the upcoming Knesset election, and I noticed how tough it was for her to make the decision on whether to return to politics. Her habit of hesitation, which has also been her stumbling block many other times in the past, is authentic.

Several prominent Israeli politicians have made comebacks. David Ben-Gurion was called on in 1955 to save Israel from the downfall of Moshe Sharett; Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak both returned to politics a number of years after losing elections.

Now Livni is trying to reemerge on the political scene, after being ousted as the leader of Kadima last March. Will she benefit from this comeback attempt? We will find out on January 22.

As a politician, Livni has notched some achievements. She has kept her hands clean, noteworthy in a Kadima party rife with individuals who have been involved in criminal activities and administrative corruption, and has displayed real integrity. For example, she was not seeking popularity when she expressed opposition to the swap deals to free Elhanan Tannenbaum from Lebanon and Gilad Schalit from the Gaza Strip.

In the diplomatic realm, Livni, as Ehud Olmert's foreign minister, insisted on holding parallel talks with Ahmed Qurei while Olmert excessively, even dangerously, courted Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. None of these efforts led to a peace agreement, showing Israel has no partner in Ramallah.

However, after refusing to join Netanyahu's coalition following the 2009 election (she would have served as prime minister for 19 months under a rotation agreement), Livni, as opposition leader, began to argue that Israel did have a partner in Ramallah. Israel has no such partner and it is impossible that Livni does not realize this.

Livni's political career has been highlighted by a series of failures. She twice was unable to form a government. With the largest party in the Knesset (28 MKs), Livni had to sit on the opposition benches. She should have joined the Netanyahu government in order to promote the views that she holds dear.

Now, Livni is limping as she reenters the political ring. Livni's Achilles' heel is the Olmert saga. Olmert's delay in announcing whether he will return to politics or not has hurt Livni, according to recent polls. Moreover, Livni does not have any accomplishments to her name that strengthen her claim that she can defeat Netanyahu.

However, there is no proof to back the argument that Livni will dilute the strength of the Center-Left bloc. Israel's political history has shown that united blocs get less overall support while split blocs get more, unless parties within the split blocs do not receive enough votes to cross the Knesset threshold.

The Likud must heed the fact that the opposition is presenting an alternative candidate for prime minister. This is the essence of democracy. Livni? Shelly Yachimovich? Yair Lapid? If I was a Likud official, I would not attack Livni's return to politics, because for the time being all she is doing is scrambling the votes within the opposition bloc. Livni does not possess a magnet in her bag that will pull votes away from the right-wing bloc.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו