A race against the clock

Hamas engaged in a stubborn two-fold race against the clock on Tuesday, in the Gaza Strip and Cairo. From Gaza, it shot rockets and tried to kill as many Israelis as possible. In Cairo, it haggled over every letter and comma of a cease-fire agreement. Israel monitored these efforts closely and worked to thwart Hamas.

On the ground, Tuesday felt like one of the worst days of Operation Pillar of Defense. There was a shower of rockets on Beersheba in the morning (including 16 rockets in one volley), two Israeli deaths in the Eshkol Regional Council, a rocket fired at Jerusalem and a direct hit on an apartment building in Rishon Lezion. There were also persistent attempts to shoot down Israel Air Force planes. There is no doubt that Gaza terrorist groups were trying to exact a painful final price from Israel in order to be able to portray an image of victory.

Israel was also operating tenaciously on Tuesday before a possible cease-fire, striking 133 targets in Gaza (1,500 targets in Gaza have been hit over the past week). The Israel Defense Forces expanded its targeting of government institutions and homes of terrorist leaders, to leave them without hideouts and deter them from future action. The Iron Dome anti-rocket system was also busy on Tuesday. As of Tuesday night, it had intercepted 389 rockets fired from Gaza over the course of the past week.

While the violence continued in Israel and Gaza, a feverish Egyptian-sponsored effort was being made in Cairo to bring about a cease-fire. Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's mourning over the death of his sister from cancer delayed the effort a bit. Another roadblock was Hamas' insistence on a detailed signed agreement that includes guarantees and monitoring mechanisms. While Israel would settle for an agreement that includes a halt to terrorist activities emanating from Gaza (including all types of attacks from Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula), Hamas is demanding an easing of Israel's naval blockade of Gaza, the full opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and an Israeli commitment to refrain from targeted killings, airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza.

On Tuesday night, all involved parties awaited the completion of an unsigned document that would lead to an immediate cease-fire. Following a cease-fire, understandings on humanitarian and economic issues will be hammered out. Israel characterized the document as a "paper ladder" that would allow Hamas to climb down from its perch and be able to explain to itself and its people why it was worth the price of the last week (which included the death of Ahmed Jabari and other senior officials, the loss of expensive weaponry and damage to civilian and military infrastructure).

Senior Israeli military and political leaders think that it is not realistic to expect that Operation Pillar of Defense could achieve more than it already has. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, along with the heads of the IDF and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), believe that the operation has accomplished most of its goals and that it should now be ended before Israel gets entangled in a situation that costs it heavily, both militarily and diplomatically. In the field, IDF troops on Tuesday continued preparing for a ground incursion in Gaza, but the general attitude among Israeli officials in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv was that the military operation was about to end. Once the operation does indeed end (it will take some time to see if Hamas halts rocket fire and enforces the cease-fire on other Gaza terrorist groups), a new three-fold battle will begin: Regarding Gaza, Israel will need to maintain deterrence and promote a narrative of victory over Hamas. Domestically, the Knesset election campaign will resume in earnest.

In terms of maintaining deterrence in Gaza, Israel has scored some impressive achievements. The Israeli attacks in Gaza and the success of the Iron Dome will likely cause some introspection in Hamas, and perhaps make them more circumspect of launching another round of fighting. How long will the quiet last? This partially depends on Israel. Future Israeli strikes in Gaza, based on intelligence on weapon-smuggling efforts or an imminent terrorist attack, would test the cease-fire.

In terms of the narrative of victory, there will be two parallel stories, pitting Israel's achievements against Hamas' success in reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with rockets. Israel should be concerned about the resilience of southern residents, but also encouraged by the widespread domestic and international support that its military action received over the past week. Hamas will be happy that it survived a challenge to its rule over Gaza, but also disappointed that it could not cause more deaths and damage in Israel.

Within Israel's political arena, blows will start being exchanged soon. There will certainly be some criticism if the operation ends now. But the bottom line is that Israel went as far as it was ready to go — not an inch more. Going further would have risked a confrontation with Egypt and Turkey, the loss of Western support and large-scale casualties on both sides. Due to the modest goals that were set, Operation Pillar of Defense can be characterized as a success. But around the corner, whether in a month or a year, the next operation awaits.

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