Knowing when to hit the brakes
, עודכן
Operation Pillar of Defense had limited objectives from the outset. No one promised to bring down Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and no one promised to engage in a ground offensive either.
On the one hand, there was a commitment to bring peace back to southern Israel. The primary objectives were achieved on the first day, with the assassination of Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari and the critical strike on Hamas' long-range rocket stockpiles. It was hard for U.S. President Barack Obama and European leaders not to support an operation at that level of intensity.
Jerusalem got the green light but not a blank check. Even if international legitimacy of Operation Pillar of Defense was tentative, from Israels point of view that was still a positive thing.
It's very tempting to compare Pillar of Defense to Cast Lead in 2008-9. It's the same place (with the addition of sirens in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem), and the forces are the same forces but it's no longer the same neighborhood. Israel in 2008 had way more wiggle room. There were open lines of communication with Egypt and Qatar.
But now the Arab world has been incensed and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt has made way for the Muslim Brotherhood's man. For those who forgot, Qatar followed Mauritanias lead after Operation Cast Lead, and cut off ties with Israel. At that same time, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began his campaign to erode Israeli-Turkish ties. The moderates in the Arab world changed their tune. The one-sided Goldstone report shoved us into a corner, and the heavy price we paid in that operation did not secure us quiet for years to come. Evidently.
It's true that back in 2008, six European leaders arrived in Israel to embrace our leaders, but they also came to make sure Israel upheld its obligations, and mainly pushed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas into the picture in the hope that he would take responsibility.
Around 500 journalists have landed in Israel in recent days. Only a small portion of them chose to stay in southern Israel. The rest are in the Gaza Strip or on their way there. Media outlets no longer report from Ashdod or Sderot; the story has moved to Gaza. The photos being broadcast worldwide undoubtedly have an effect on governments. Among the Palestinian casualties, about half are civilians, which is not good for Israel's image. As the operation continues, the ratio will likely dip even further and Israel's legitimacy will go down with it. At this point, it is imperative to know, despite all frustration, when to hit the brakes.
From the onset of the operation, there have been two camps working concurrently. One headed by Obama, the other by Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi. Obama leads Western opinion, which supports Israel's right to defend itself, while Morsi pushes for minimizing damage in the Gaza Strip and finding an escape route for Hamas.
Avoiding a ground operation will net Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu points with Obama. The U.S. president, who has received so much flak for his Middle East policy, is approaching the beginning of his second term on the right foot. Obama is not only getting involved but exerting influence. Operation Pillar of Defense forces Morsi to communicate as well, even if in covert and limited ways, with the Netanyahu government. It's important to note that until the operation began, Morsi had not even uttered the word "Israel."
It was Hamas' choice to begin the operation. Now Israel has to choose when it will end.
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