War of nerves
Since Menachem Begin stood before the Knesset three decades ago with the futile request that the eyes of those responsible for the First Lebanon War not be gouged out, I have developed a sensitive ear for the sounds of vultures searching for prey. On Sunday night, I heard the first such sounds in regard to Israel's current military operation in the Gaza Strip. Consensus, by its nature, is short-lived.
It always starts with propaganda from Gaza. Nothing but propaganda is distributed from Gaza. Some Israelis then mix this propaganda in with factual reports to erode support for military action.
Some of their arguments can even sometimes be correct. Israel needs to be cautious. Surgical strikes are one thing. A broader operation, with possible ground action, is something else entirely.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and other top government ministers faced a clear dilemma on Sunday. Hamas was making impossible demands in cease-fire talks even though Hamas knew that its power had weakened and its rocket fire from Gaza had lessened somewhat.
Israel can continue its surgical strikes, but this will not increase pressure on Hamas. If Israel broadens the scope of its strikes, this will play into the hands of its critics at home and abroad. And the benefits of a ground operation would not outweigh its costs. There are no good choices.
Former Sayeret Matkal commander Omer Bar-Lev, who is running in the Labor party primaries, suggested that Israel hold its fire for 12 hours and see if Hamas follows suit. If Hamas continued to fire rockets, Israel would then intensify its attacks in Gaza. Experts responded to this idea by saying that Hamas would not see such a move as a credible Israeli threat, but rather as a sign of Israeli weakness. Channel 1 commentator Oded Granot put it this way: Hamas would not back down from the threat of Israeli tanks entering Gaza until Israeli tanks were actually in Gaza.
Everyone knew that the present moment would arrive. The reality now is different than in the opening phase of the operation. This is now a war of nerves between the involved parties. Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is set to make his first official visit to the U.S. soon and he is under pressure to broker a cease-fire in Gaza. Morsi does not, however, have the ability to completely control Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and the Hamas government in Gaza. On the hand, Israel's leaders also feel that time is running out, because reserve soldiers cannot remain mobilized forever and each passing day sees increasing international pressure on Israel to stop Operation Pillar of Defense before even its most basic goals have been achieved.
The less neurotic side will win.
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