The Israel Defense Forces intensified its airstrikes in the Gaza Strip overnight Sunday in an effort to dictate a quick cease-fire to Hamas. On Sunday, Israel's political echelon once again refused to authorize a ground incursion into Gaza, to give more time to the talks currently underway in Cairo. Negotiations are being led by Egyptian intelligence officials, headed by Mohamed Raafat Shehata. Despite Israeli denials, over the past 24 hours Israeli representatives have indeed been in Cairo. Hamas is represented by members of its political wing, who have once again taken center stage due the vacuum left by the group's military commanders who have been forced underground. At the center of negotiations is Hamas' demand to completely remove the closure over the Gaza Strip, including restrictions enforced by Israel's navy and the selective activity Egypt allows at the Rafah border crossing. While the Oslo Accords allow the Palestinians to fish up to 12 miles from the coast, the navy reduces the range to 2.5 miles out of concern of terrorist attacks and weapons smuggling. It's likely that Israel will show slightly more flexibility, but free sea access to Gaza won't be allowed because of weapons smuggling concerns. The Egyptians, too, are expected to compromise somewhat in regards to the Rafah border crossing and allow it to remain open more, but will insist on maintaining complete control over the traffic and identification of those who pass through. Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to accept Israel's demand to refrain from activity along the security "perimeter" the 300-meter (984-foot) strip of no-man's land west of the border fence, where the IDF insists on operating to thwart roadside bombings and tunnel digging. The estimation is that here, too, similar to Hamas' attitude about stopping the rocket and mortar fire, the deciding factor will be the degree of deterrence that Operation Pillar of Defense is able to achieve. Despite statements by Hamas that it was determined to continue fighting for many days to come, Israeli intelligence officials are adamant that the organization is in severe distress, the result of Israel's hard, methodical pounding of its resources, personnel, installations and armaments. It's not clear whether the relative decline in rocket fire toward Israel on Sunday can be attributed to this distress. Despite Israel's efforts from the air, Hamas once again managed to fire two missiles at the central Dan region, which were both intercepted by Iron Dome. American Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, who visited the fifth and newest Iron Dome battery responsible for protecting Tel Aviv and the Dan region, certainly had the right to feel the pride of a groom at his wedding: Without the generous U.S. aid, Iron Dome would never have become such an effective player in the current conflict. The number of casualties that would have been caused in its absence, suffice it to say, would have already caused the IDF to invade Gaza with ground forces. A ground incursion is still on the table, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman decided Sunday to delay it yet again to give more time for a diplomatic solution to develop. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will visit Gaza on Monday, allegedly to offer Hamas support but actually to increase his country's influence and involvement in the region. Officials in Israel's defense establishment have called in recent days to exploit the current round of fighting to "wipe the slate clean" with the Turks, which would allow them to be fair and efficient mediators with Hamas (and also a possible ally against Hezbollah and Iran in the future). It's likely that during Davutoğlu's visit, Israel will hold its fire or minimize its scope of activity in Gaza, but until then and after without an agreed upon cease-fire Israel will increase its pressure from the air, which includes targeting senior Hamas officials themselves; their offices, homes, and anything that can make "the cost of losing" clear to them and force them to choose a path of de-escalation. In conjunction with diplomatic developments, Israel is conducting a massive public relations campaign, led by the IDF Spokesperson's Office, aimed at exposing the lies and rumors being propagated by the Palestinians and emphasizing the selective, discriminate nature of the Israeli operation. As long as no major mistakes are made during the military operation, this campaign (waged mainly online in the New Media sphere) can certainly be called a success. It has provided Israel with more legitimacy in the world, which can be directly translated to greater freedom of action for the IDF. However, the military operation's success will only truly be judged in the field, not in the media in other words, the degree of peace that Israel's southern residents will receive once it ends. This question will remain unanswered even after an agreement is reached in Cairo it will only be resolved in the future: Once the next round of fighting begins will it be possible to examine, in retrospect, the level of deterrence Israel achieved in the current round.
