Jaw jaw, then war war
The most recent round of hostilities in the Gaza Strip left a bitter taste in the mouths of the million residents of southern Israel and many others in the country. The Israeli government found itself embarrassed, as Hamas set the timing and scope of the violence. The Palestinians fired a swarm of missiles and Israel responded with restraint.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak promised a "fitting response at an appropriate time," but these were empty words. Israel will respond only if Hamas initiates a resumption of violence. There is no doubt this will happen at some point in the future, unfortunately.
Israel's moderation was quite understandable. Egypt did not want the violence in Gaza to continue, but Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi made commitments that could lead to a conflagration that no one is seeking at this time. It is safe to assume that the cease-fire reached this week included a number of understandings between Egypt and Hamas. The nature and reliability of these understandings are unknown.
Israel's restraint also stemmed from the lessons of the Second Lebanon War, during which Israel reacted hastily and no one in the government knew what the ultimate goal of the fighting was.
Hamas believes that Israel is currently deterred from launching a ground operation in Gaza, due to both the upcoming Knesset election and the political discord that such an operation would cause between Israel and the Morsi government. But Hamas is only looking at one side of the coin. No Israeli government would be able to accept another round of violence that ends in a similar way to the most recent one, certainly not during an election season.
Israel's disappointing moderation during the recent round of violence would be acceptable if Israel clearly shows that it is preparing for war and uses the time before the next rocket is fired into southern Israel to enlist international support. A well-functioning Foreign Ministry would launch frenzied non-stop activities to make Israel's case for a military operation in Gaza and Israeli diplomats would make the danger of the current situation in Gaza clear to foreign governments, both friendly and unfriendly.
If I was Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, I would tell the U.S. and European Union countries that they could send a military representative to join any Israel Defense Forces patrol along the Gaza border fence. Let them see for themselves who is violating the cease-fire. Such a step would lay the groundwork for at least some international understanding of future Israeli military action.
It seems clear to me that an Israeli military operation in Gaza would be based on aerial strikes against Hamas government institutions, and the renewal of targeted killings of Hamas leaders. Israel must prepare for this. Days of quiet should be used to continue the war via diplomatic means.
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