No data shows the uncertainty and doubt surrounding the merger deal reached between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman more than the public opinion polls published on Sunday night by Channels 10 and 2. According to the Channel 2 poll, the new joint list will win 42 Knesset seats, while the Channel 10 poll predicted only 35 seats for "Likud-Beytenu." Things will change before the election in January, but these polls will have a practical and crucial influence on the decision of the Likud Central Committee on Monday night to approve or reject the merger. Two question marks remain in the election mix. In a 127-paragraph petition to the High Court that was submitted on Sunday, the Movement for Quality Government demanded that Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein decide before the election whether to indict Lieberman on corruption charges. If Weinstein files an indictment or announces that the case is closed, the political picture will be clearer, for better or worse, As of now, the picture remains murky. The other remaining question regards former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's future. The date on which he will announce whether he will return to politics has changed frequently. Olmert's confidants are now saying that he will not decide before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 6, so that he can see who will be sitting in the White House for the next four years. The U.S. presidential election has now entered Israel's political arena. But would Olmert get former Kadima Chairwoman Tzipi Livni to join forces with him? The chances that Olmert will return are low, and there is even less of a possibility that Livni will join him. Given that Livni demanded Olmert resign as prime minister when he was suspected of corruption offenses, what now after he was convicted? With this uncertainty hovering over the political scene, Likud Central Committee members are saying some reasonable things to themselves. Perhaps it would have been preferable for Netanyahu to wait until after the election to unite with Lieberman. Netanyahu's concerns that Lieberman could turn against him did not justify the prime minister forcing an agreement on Likud about which party operatives were not consulted in advance. If the Channel 10 poll was correct, the merger was harmful to Likud. If the Channel 2 poll was accurate, the situation is one that Likud can live with. Lieberman turns off many voters. Even the secular tendencies of Yisrael Beytenu and its demands for civil marriage and a universal military draft could repel many voters. On the other hand, there are two reasons for Likud Central Committee members to vote in favor of Netanyahu's deal with Lieberman. First, the creation of large political blocs benefits the country. Even if this was not the motive for the deal, it was a result of it. Second, a rejection of the deal would humiliate Netanyahu at a time when Likud Central Committee members are about to launch the party's campaign to convince the public that the prime minister is worthy of being re-elected. Likud members even those who believe that Netanyahu acted improperly in making the unity deal with Lieberman have no interest in striking a blow against Netanyahu. Whether the vote on Monday night is open or secret, Netanyahu will attain a majority supporting the merger deal.
