A political earthquake
The jigsaw puzzle emerging from the earthquake produced by the political merger of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is far from complete. The picture is partial right now, as everything is still vibrating. Nothing is guaranteed. Dramatic news is mixed in with rumors. On Thursday night, Channel 2 political analyst Amnon Abramovich reported that Netanyahu and Lieberman had agreed on a rotation deal for the prime minister position. This could have been a political bomb with much resulting shrapnel, but everyone involved vowed that the report was journalistic nonsense. There is no rotation agreement.
Netanyahu and Lieberman correctly explained that any union between political parties that reduces the number of factions in the Knesset is a desirable and recommended move, especially for those who understand that good governance is based on two large blocs, with several small satellite parties. But this was likely not the only reason for the merger. Hovering over Netanyahu was Aryeh Deri's return to Shas, the possible reemergence of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the decision of Likud minister Moshe Kahlon to leave political life. The main threat to Lieberman is Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid. The legendary political consultant Arthur Finkelstein recommended that Netanyahu and Lieberman unite.
Will the collective political strength of Netanyahu and Lieberman grow as a result of their unification? There is no evidence for this from past political unions. But the demographics of Israeli society have changed. It is quite possible that the Netanyahu-Lieberman bloc will increase, or at least maintain its current f 42 Knesset seats, which would please the two men.
The public has not yet been polled about the merger, but even the first poll results will not represent the true situation. There are two possibilities. One is that the joint list will have a Russian hue that will lead some Likud voters to move their support to Shas.
The other possibility is that the merger of Netanyahu and Lieberman will weaken Shas' bargaining power. With such a large support base and with the center-left bloc divided into three or four lists, Netanyahu and Lieberman will be able to form a coalition similar to that assembled by Ariel Sharon near the start of the last decade.
The agreement between Netanyahu and Lieberman contains another clear statement. Tzipi Livni, Haim Ramon, Aryeh Deri and Yair Lapid have never ruled out the possibility of joining a coalition with Lieberman. On Thursday, Lieberman sent them a divorce certificate. They will now only be able to reach Lieberman by telephone if they call the Prime Minister's Office. Much to the comfort of Netanyahu and Lieberman, it is doubtful that these political rivals will be able to consolidate an opposing joint list.
Placing Lieberman in the second spot on the "Likud-Beiteinu" list is problematic. Not because of his policy positions, as he is more pragmatic and moderate than he is viewed at the U.N. and by foreign diplomats, but rather because of his threatening language regarding Israeli Arabs, which reverberates throughout the world, as well as his hostility toward the rule of law.
During the current Knesset term, Likud MKs Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, Gideon Sa'ar and Reuven Rivlin, as well as Ehud Barak (from outside Likud but within the coalition), were able to block a number of dangerous legislative proposals. Will these individuals carry less weight now? The investigation file on Lieberman is still sitting on the desk of Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein. A decision on whether to file an indictment is expected to be made before December 6, the date that parties can start submitting their Knesset lists. If Lieberman is forced to quit politics, the political analysts will say that the gods are again smiling on Netanyahu.
The unification deal will be met with a shrug in Likud and few will come out publicly against it. The move will be approved, although anyone in Likud who sees themselves as a future heir to Netanyahu will naturally feel that they are now farther away from achieving their personal aspirations. This will not be enough, however, to thwart the merger. On the contrary, anyone who speaks out against the deal will be thought of within Likud as a saboteur of the party's interests. Thursday's move was just the opening whistle.
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