Elections will strengthen right-wing bloc
Public opinions conducted by Israel Hayom, Haaretz, Maariv and the Knesset Channel point to clear stability in the preferences of Israeli voters. With an understanding that poll analysis is subject to the whims of the current moment and that exultant looks today can turn into embarrassed grimaces tomorrow, it is possible to identify several trends in Israeli politics, as things stand now.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party hold an advantage that will be difficult for political rivals to overcome, unless dramatic and unexpected events take place in the next few months. Netanyahu's rivals are not unified, but Shelly Yachimovich and the Labor party lead the others, which is a desirable situation for those who hope that one day Israel's democracy will be divided into two large groups a Conservative-Liberal bloc and a Social-Democratic bloc.
It is also unequivocally certain that the Kadima party, with whatever slogans and with whichever leaders, is done. That is true with Shaul Mofaz or Tzipi Livni at the helm, or even in a mad scenario in which Ehud Olmert tries to rise from the defendant's bench to a Knesset seat or the government cabinet table.
If Livni harms her good name and joins up with Olmert, together they will not receive more than 10 Knesset seats. That is not worth it for her. Moreover, the place for ex-criminals is not in government leadership positions. Yachimovich said something similar about Olmert on Thursday and Likud Minister Dan Meridor expressed reservations about Aryeh Deri's return to the political ring, either as the head of an independent faction or within Shas.
Israeli voters would help the country's future national interest if they give significantly more votes to Likud and Labor than any of the other parties.
Voting trends are clear, but they are far from conclusive. The situation of Israeli voters on election day is largely dependent on countries in which they have no influence. Voters may be affected by a renewal of Palestinian violence or the winds of war blowing in the Arab world, as well as economic developments in Europe, the reverberations of which are immediately felt in the Israeli economy. The results of the U.S. presidential election in early November will also influence the mood of the Israeli voter. Even the results of the Likud primaries will have an influence.
Right now, we can say that the election campaign has begun with a sense that nothing will change, except an exchange of Knesset seats between Kadima and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party. The right-wing bloc looks like it will be strengthened, but this does not mean the prime minister will prefer a coalition with it rather than forming a national unity government. Moreover, Labor party leaders are not ruling out such a possibility in advance.
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