A firm red line

The Israeli Air Force has carried out over a hundred strikes on Syria in recent years, according to outgoing IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel. On the face of it, last week's airstrike near the Syrian town of Maysaf was just another such attack. And yet, if media reports out of Syria are correct, then the timing, location and target of the attack -- not a weapons shipment bound for Hezbollah but a facility that manufactures chemical weapons -- make this strike different.

If Israel was responsible for the attack, then it should be viewed against the backdrop of the Syrian civil war that is drawing to a close. It will be many more months before the fire raging in the country completely dies down, but it is already clear that Syrian President Bashar Assad will have the upper hand in the end. The clear winners in the conflict are Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, who joined forces to ensure Assad's victory.

Russia, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, is busy shaping the future face of Syria, with the blessing of many regional players like Turkey, Jordan and even the U.S. The U.S. has been so focused on defeating the Islamic State group that it didn't stop to think about the day after Islamic State, instead opting to disappear from the scene and hand the keys over to Moscow.

Once the war is over, Iran will certainly wield a lot of power in Syria. The Russians are less than enthusiastic about this Iranian presence, but they need Iran to ensure stability in Syria. After all, the Russian jets may circle around in the air but the actual bloodshed is left for soldiers dispatched to Syria by Iran.

In recent months, Israel has warned the Russians that an Iranian foothold in Syria would constitute a red line that could plunge the region into an all-out war. The Russians, for their part, are trying to strike a balance between their commitment to Israel's security and their commitment to Assad, as well as Iran and Hezbollah, its allies in the struggle for regional hegemony.

Moscow's modus operandi is to maintain ambiguity: They listen to Israel's requests, and even comply with some -- keeping Iran and Hezbollah away from the Israeli-Syrian border for example -- and refrain from retaliating when Israel strikes targets on Syrian soil, but still, they allow Iran to establish a prominent presence in Syria.

The Israeli attacks on Syria could actually be in the Russians' best interest, in that they allow Moscow to play the part of the "responsible adult" working to allay the concerns of its excitable clients, thereby increasing their dependency on Moscow.

But in such a situation, Israel has no choice but to send a clear message to Moscow about its red lines and to work independently opposite this unholy trinity of an increasing Iranian presence in Syria, the continuing transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah and ultimately the possibility the Iranians will use Syrian facilities to manufacture weapons for Hezbollah.

Like the ones that came before it, the most recent airstrike attributed to Israel was not met with a response. But the question remains: Is the window of opportunity that allowed Israel to operate within Syrian territory closing now that the end of the Syrian civil war is coming to a close? Also, when will Putin decide to put an end to these operations, which could jeopardize his achievements in Syria, and what will he do to ensure Israel's security in return?

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