A small but serious problem

The bombastic headline -- "Israeli brothers join ISIS" -- obscures a reality that is actually quite different: The terrorist organization is almost entirely in retreat and the number of Israelis joining its ranks is small and dwindling.

ISIS has sustained crippling blows in recent weeks, the direct result of international military pressure on its power centers in Iraq and Syria. Thanks to American efforts, and, to a lesser extent, Russian efforts, the organization has lost its hold in Iraq and is headed for defeat in Syria as well.

Many of the group's fighters have been killed in this military campaign while others have defected. There has been a sharp drop in volunteers. The status of the group's leadership is also unclear, specifically as it pertains to its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who is reported by several media outlets to have been killed recently, though this has yet to be officially verified.

However, while the group is rapidly shrinking in the real world, it is alive and kicking in the virtual world. Those who buy into the group's propaganda are convinced that ISIS is still making territorial gains and is practically on the verge of completing its takeover of the Middle East. Some people are in fact convinced by this propaganda, and among those people are the Jabarin brothers from Umm al-Fahm, who were arrested in July.

Pinpointing ISIS volunteers is relatively easy because all their communications are conducted online, primarily on social networks. On these sites they follow updates, join chat rooms, undergo indoctrination and receive instructions about where to go and who to contact. For those doing the tracking -- in this case the Shin Bet security agency -- the task is a relatively simple one because these youngsters facilitate their own capture by leaving behind sufficient digital footprints.

To begin with, only a small number of Israelis have joined ISIS. Fourteen volunteers joined the group in 2014, 44 in 2015, 65 in 2016 and 33 since the beginning of 2017. The drop in numbers in recent months indicates that Israeli-Arabs believe the reports about the group's dire situation on the ground more than the lies it spreads on social networks. It is also due in part to the fact that radicalization among Israeli-Arabs is relatively low in the religious context, and is certainly lesser in scope compared to other countries in the region.

And still, the Shin Bet treats each of these cases with the appropriate degree of urgency. Not just because ISIS is considered a terrorist organization whose goals include harming Israel, but also because of the realization that anyone who takes this step -- even if they do not physically join the fight for ISIS -- could be inspired to carry out terrorist attacks in Israel, certainly when that person possesses a firearm.

The extent to which the Jabarin brothers where influenced by members of their clan -- three of whom murdered two Israeli police officers in a terrorist attack on the Temple Mount last month -- is unclear. Regardless, it appears the ideological background for both cases was completely different. We should also avoid making generalizations about the entire Jabarin clan and certainly about Israeli-Arabs as a whole. While Israel currently faces a host of problems and challenges with its Arab minority, ISIS is without a doubt among the smaller ones.

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