Skepticism was rampant in Jerusalem and Washington even before Russia and the United States hastily signed a southern Syria cease-fire agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that Israel opposes the deal because it perpetuates Iran's presence in the country. To say there is a rift between the U.S. and Israel would be an exaggeration, but there is certainly discord surrounding this issue. Although Iran was indeed active in Syria long before the deal was ever signed, via Shiite militias or Hezbollah, the difference is that the agreement now specifically delineates buffer zones in the country near the Jordanian and Israeli borders, apparently under Russian supervision, without making any mention of preventing Iran or any of its proxies from operating in these zones. And while the two are not connected, the suggestion that a foreign power, in this case Russia, will secure Israel's border with Syria forces Israeli officials to keep a close eye on reports coming out of the U.S. surrounding a plan, proposed by retired Gen. John Allen under former President Barack Obama, in which the IDF will eventually be replaced in the Jordan Valley by an international force. While Russia and Iran do have different long-term aspirations in Syria, their present cooperation in this arena and the new cease-fire deal serve to entrench Iran's presence in parts of the country. Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to the prime minister, discussed the matter recently, saying, "The construction of Iranian bases in Syria provides a launching pad for Iran and Hezbollah against Israel, which Israel needs to prevent at any cost, and if it isn't taken into account by those making the arrangements (in other words the U.S. and Russia), it could lead the IDF to intervene." This development is also a test of the new alliance between the Saudi-led pragmatic Sunni camp and the U.S. under President Donald Trump. This camp, similar to Israel and Jordan, view the trend of expanding Iranian influence as a key security threat. Michael Gerson, who served as speech writer for President George W. Bush, wrote in the Washington Post recently that "the American presidents subservience to Russia's interests and worldview ... involves greater Russian influence and intimidation in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East (where Iran, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah are winners as well)." Although this criticism is perhaps a tad extreme, without overstating the comparison, Trump's conduct surrounding this cease-fire deal in Syria is reminiscent of Obama's behavior leading up to the nuclear deal with Iran. Both presidents focused all their attention on the deal while ignoring the negative consequences for America's allies in the region. Cutting off the supply of American aid to Syrian rebels appears to also be a part of this trend. Incidentally, it is important to note that in both cases a significant portion of the U.S. Congress expressed reservations -- not just because of the security threat to Israel, but mainly because of the security threat to the U.S. itself. Officials in Moscow and Washington have attempted to assuage Israeli concerns with various promises, but for the time being at least, these promises appear unfulfilled. This critique is not meant as criticism of Trump's entire foreign policy, but one cannot help but ponder the seeming contradiction between his vehement opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran, which includes imposing new sanctions, and the steps he has taken that have essentially cleared the path for Iran in Syria. Perhaps officials in Washington believe it is feasible to play a sophisticated strategic game of reciprocity between the various players -- Russia, Iran, Syria, Ukraine, and so forth -- but intentions aside, this approach could ultimately yield the opposite of the desired result. It's very possible that the cease-fire deal won't be the last word in Syria in general and in southern Syria in particular, not from the perspective of Israeli diplomacy -- whether toward the pragmatic Sunni Arab world or toward Russia, but first and foremost toward its friend and ally the United States. In the coming weeks, the Americans will have to work hard to ensure that this supposed cease-fire deal does not exacerbate the conflagration even further.
