The reports of an impending deal between Israel and Hamas -- to secure the release of captive civilians and bodies -- are directly linked to the third anniversary of Operation Protective Edge, which was marked on Saturday. Three years after that military campaign, Hamas has never been worse off. Gaza is mired in a deep economic crisis, evident mainly in an extreme electricity shortage and unpaid salaries. It is also suffering from unprecedented diplomatic isolation and is also physically besieged as Egypt keeps the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza closed. The hundreds of homes, destroyed during Protective Edge, that have yet to be rebuilt are a monument to the disparity between expectations and reality: Civilians in Gaza were supposed to suffer during the fighting so that they could reap the fruits of that suffering afterward. That did not happen; the reality in Gaza today is worse than it was in early July, 2014, fueling Hamas concerns that the people will grow tired of the situation and rebel. In the meantime, there are still no outward signs of this occurring, mainly because Hamas is a dictatorial regime that forcefully suppresses any indication of revolt. However, Hamas understands that it needs to present the people with some accomplishment in the very near future. That is the reason for the negotiations with Mohammed Dahlan -- the representative that the Gulf states and Egypt are willing to accept -- over projects and funding; that is the reason an (obviously deliberate) leak revealed that foreign-mediated talks are underway for the release of Israelis and bodies of soldiers held captive in Gaza. While these reports are not entirely baseless, they are being taken way out of proportion. There is no breakthrough, and in all likelihood, no deal is imminent. Hamas continues to make extreme demands (the release of many prisoners, including high-ranking ones) while Israel insists on making it a humanitarian issue -- the release of civilians who wandered into Gaza and the bodies of IDF soldiers. As usual, the picture behind the scenes is doubtless far more fascinating. Even though Hamas wants its people released from Israeli prison, it is considerably more preoccupied with the problems inside Gaza. Its interests in a deal therefore are significantly broader than the number of prisoners it gets in return; they pertain to the future of Gaza, or at the very least to its present -- the amount of electricity it receives and from where, the reopening of the Rafah crossing and the nature of goods allowed to enter. Hamas needs all these things immediately, which explains its current motivation for leaking details of the talks with Israel. It hopes that the reports will spur the families of the fallen soldiers whose bodies are held in Gaza, along with the families of the civilians held there, to pressure the Israeli government to soften its stance and end this painful saga. This is merely a cynical ploy on the part of Hamas -- similar to its methods during previous prisoner exchange deals: They seek to exploit the families' pain to improve its negotiating position. We can assume the Israeli government will rebuff this attempt, and not just because the current situation is different from previous ones. Israeli officials believe Hamas' distress and its urgent need for an accomplishment make it more likely to soften its own stance for a change. In the meantime, this approach is proving itself. Despite the threats spewed by its militant leadership, Hamas is more restrained than ever. Not only does it refrain from shooting at Israel, it avoids involving itself in provocations that could lead to an unintended escalation of hostilities. Israeli officials are always wary of crossing Hamas' breaking point, at which it concludes it has nothing left to lose and starts another war. The current talks over a possible deal are an excellent opportunity for Israel to put this question to the test, and on the way to also possibly end this agonizing chapter of Israelis held captive in Gaza.
