Hamas, the terrorist organization that rules the Gaza Strip, is under pressure from three sides. The first and most important stems from Qatar's being forced to sever ties with it, expelling several of its leaders and leaving open the possibility that the organization's entire leadership will eventually need to leave the country. If Qatar ceases to provide economic aid to the Gaza Strip due to this pressure, residents of Gaza and Hamas will have lost what has been their primary source of help in recent years. The second source of pressure is from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his recent decisions. Firstly, the PA will reduce or has already significantly reduced salaries to people it considers its enemies in Gaza, and these cuts will have a considerable impact on the economic situation. Abbas has also decided not to pay for a large portion of the electricity that Gaza consumes, subsequently leading to the Israeli cabinet's decision on Sunday to reduce the amount of electricity Israel transfers to Gaza. As a result, the people of Gaza will be left without electricity for much of the time. There is no alternative to Israeli electricity, because the Egyptians, too, are denying Gaza more electricity; there is no alternative to the salaries, because no one will fill the void left by the PA on this matter; and it does not appear that anyone will step into Qatar's shoes if it has to discontinue its economic support. All these factors will lead to immense pressure on the Gaza Strip in general and on Hamas, which is responsible for Gaza, in particular. This is a classic example of a situation in which Israel has no "good decision" to make. On one hand, Israel has a very large interest in pressuring Hamas to sacrifice its military investments. On the other hand, the worse the situation in Gaza becomes, and the less Hamas has to lose, the more the risk of a violent outburst from inside Gaza grows. This outburst will be aimed at Israel rather than Hamas. What is the right balance between pressure on Hamas and continuing to build in Gaza to provide an outlet of hope for its population? The answer to this question is entirely unclear. How can pressure be applied without causing an eruption? To do so is an art form, and it is very difficult to provide good advice. It is exceedingly clear, however, that once the three prongs of pressure -- less electricity, lower salaries, reduced economic aid -- impact life in a tangible manner, the Gaza Strip will become far more combustible. This has to be taken into account.
