A new era in US policy on Iran

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's solid victory in Friday's elections, which earned him a second term in office, guarantees that the situation that has prevailed since the 2015 nuclear agreement -- an aggressive Iranian regime operating under a facade of moderation -- will continue.

This pretense has been convenient for both Iran and the world powers party to the nuclear deal. It allowed Iran to maintain every opportunity to renew its efforts to become a military nuclear power without compromising any of its other military plans, while simultaneously increasing its strategic and geopolitical expansion in the entire Middle East. Most Western leaders are also comfortable with the situation, as the deal has placed Iran on the "right side" in the war on Islamic State. Any confrontation with a nuclear Iran is future leaders to contend with, and in the meantime, it is business as usual.

The U.S.'s position on the nuclear deal is more complex in the era of the Trump administration. Washington has no doubt that Iran is a dangerous nation that threatens not only U.S. allies in the Middle East, but also vital American interests in the region.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama did not believe the Middle East held any true American interest, and he lauded the 2015 nuclear deal as the crowning glory of his presidency's foreign policy. As one of his speech writers once said, the United States should not be led by Saudi Arabia, Israel and AIPAC. The Trump administration holds the opposite view, saying the nuclear deal is a political, diplomatic and security fiasco, and unlike the Obama administration, which sought to give Iran a position of influence in the Middle East alongside the Saudi Arabia-led Sunni bloc, Trump seeks to contain Tehran's influence in the region.

Trump's current trip to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Vatican, and what he heard in Riyadh and will hear in Jerusalem, are likely to strengthen this view, yet there are still apparent contradictions stemming from the tactical cooperation between the U.S. and Russia in Syria and the war on Islamic State.

In Syria, it is Moscow, not Washington, that is calling the shots. Russia has a vested interest in diminishing U.S. involvement in Syria, which in turn spells further elevation in Iran's status not only in Syria, but in the entire Middle East.

This scenario is clearly negative for Israel, as an upgraded Iranian presence in Syria, and next in Lebanon, may result in a military confrontation with Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah in the Golan Heights and on Israel's northern border in general.

The Trump administration is said to be formulating what in today's terms is seen as a "holistic" policy on Iran. While these aspects will surely be considered by those tasked with crafting this policy, it is quite possible that they will find themselves pressured by economic elements in the United States, which do not approve of a situation by which business opportunities with Iran are deferred to Europe and China.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration followed Obama on the issue of mitigating the restrictions imposed on Iranian oil exports, but "balanced" it by imposing new sanctions over specific issues pertaining to the Iranian missile program and human rights.

Some in Washington have interpreted these new sanctions as a warning to Tehran that it should curb its aggressive activities in various areas lest it risk a forceful American response, including potentially a military one.

Others, however, believe the Trump administration is biding its time. In other words, it seeks to signal Iran that while the U.S. does not approve of its conduct, it will not take steps to revoke the nuclear deal at this time.

In any case, the question whether the U.S. and Israel have missed the opportunity to act militarily to stop Iran's nuclear pursuits, or whether military action was simply postponed, will remain on the agenda. Despite the upheavals regarding the Iranian issue, past and future, Israel's policy on the matter will not change: Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

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