Expect much of the same

In the wake of tempestuous, surprising election campaigns and equally thrilling national referendums in the United States, U.K., France and even Turkey, now comes Iran's turn. In two weeks, on May 19, 50 million Iranian citizens will elect a president for the next four years, while in the meantime the race is heating up, the political rivals are exchanging blows and tensions are boiling over in the streets of the capital Tehran.

Fear not, though. The winner, who astonishingly never even bothered to present his candidacy, has already been decided. We are talking, of course, about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a two-bit politico and scholar who became supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the wake of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death. The children can therefore play make-believe elections all they want, but the last word is reserved for him.

And yet, for the vast majority of Iranians, the president -- who is charged with creating jobs, fighting corruption and high living costs and providing food -- is no less important than the supreme leader, who handles those highly critical matters that are of little interest to the average Iranian voter, such as the country's involvement in Syria and Yemen, supporting Hezbollah and of course the nuclear issue and relations with the U.S.

Over 1,600 people submitted their candidacies for the presidential elections, including 137 women. The Guardian Council, however, whose members were appointed or are controlled by Khamenei, rejected most of them. Among those who were rejected, incidentally, was former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who tried his luck despite being explicitly "advised" by Khamenei not to submit his candidacy. The discord between the two, which is largely driven by ego and questions of obeisance, can be traced back to Ahmadinejad's time in office.

The final roster of candidates, meanwhile, comprises outgoing 69-year-old President Hassan Rouhani, who is seeking a second term, and several hard-line candidates looking to oust him. Most prominent among the hard-liners is Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi. In the late 1980s, this drab, unassuming figure, who served as Tehran's deputy prosecutor at the time, oversaw the mass execution of political dissidents.

Four years ago, Rouhani was put in office by young Iranians demanding reforms, who hoped he could change things from the inside and mostly improve the country's economic situation. The problem is that only a small fraction of the hopes pinned on him came to fruition. While Rouhani did sign the nuclear deal with former U.S. President Barack Obama, it did not lead to dramatic change in Iran. The economy is still sputtering and as far as domestic and social reforms are concerned one can keep dreaming.

Rouhani, after all, is not a revolutionary. Those who viewed him as a kind of Iranian Mikhail Gorbachev were wrong from the start. He is a conservative from within the establishment and is sworn to defend it. The difference between him and his rivals is his willingness to act pragmatically in accordance with the shifting reality. But this disposition, as stated, is simply to preserve the existing order rather than destroy it.

During a public debate last week, Rouhani's political adversaries unsurprisingly attacked him for failing to keep his promise to voters. They argued that the gap between poor and rich in Iran was growing and with typical cynicism they called for "social justice." According to projections, however, Rouhani will win because his disappointed constituency does not have an alternative candidate to choose in his stead.

In neighboring Turkey, meanwhile, Erdogan's national referendum bid for unprecedented constitutional powers was largely opposed by Turks in the large cities and supported by those in the rural areas. A similar scenario could also unfold in Iran. None of this is truly pertinent, however, because the supreme leader, Khamenei, still holds the wheel. Perhaps true elections, instead of selecting the president behind closed doors, can be held in Iran when the elderly, infirm Khamenei finally passes from this world.

Change in Iran will come and one day the Iranians will topple the ayatollah regime controlling them, but a great deal of patience is required until this happens. Salvation for Iran, therefore, will not arrive in the upcoming elections, even if the sitting president, Rouhani, wins re-election as expected.

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