The giant ice floes of the frozen Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic process started shifting this week. Slowly, slightly, but there are signs of movement. Benjamin Netanyahu has conceded that it's not going to be possible to overcome an automatic majority of votes in favor of a Palestinian state in the U.N.General Assembly. Instead, he has been trying to put together a minority of "high quality" countries to oppose Ramallah's potential gambit. Is he suceeding- The facts aren't all in yet. France sent a trial balloon into the international arena offering to host an Israeli-Palestinian conference. Fortunately for Israel, the United States has refused to let go of the reins and wants to drive the carriage even though it can't be budged for now. This makes it easier for Israel to decline the French invitation. Israel would rather consolidate a joint policy with the United States and has dispatched Isaac Molcho to Washington for that purpose. The Palestinians are actually listening to Obama and Hillary Clinton when they say they oppose a unilateral Palestinian move, because Abu Mazen also believes that active American involvement is a prerequisite to diplomatic progress. Germany is taking its cues from the U.S. Italy is on board as well. The countries that Israel might label "high-quality" have begun to doubt the wisdom of a unilateral Palestinian move in September. There is evidence for this in at least two news items that indicate Ramallah may be getting cold feet. One item is that a senior Palestinian Authority official said they would forgo a unilateral move if the U.S. could get Israel to adopt a policy of maintaining the West Bank status quo for the duration of negotiations. In Israeli terms this means a settlement building freeze. Meanwhile, in the heat of talks with Clinton and Molcho, Saeb Erekat made a different demand. He actually dropped the building freeze requirement and indicated he would be satisfied with an Israeli declaration that future borders will be based on the 1967 lines with mutual land swaps. Both concessions, if they contain any substance, are a step in the right direction. Our government in Jerusalem is not rushing to pat itself on the back. Why not? The anser is as yet unclear. Perhaps Jerusalem doesn't want to resume negotiations at this point; perhaps the government thinks it might be able to chalk up additional early gains. An equally likely scenario is that the Palestinians haven't given up yet on their plan for unilateral action. There's no room for complacency, they are sticking to their guns. But in order to consolidate support in the U.N. General Asembly, Palestinians are trying to appear as though they are making an effort to renew negotations with Israel. It's a start, and that's a lot, but it's also not enough--yet.
