Russia's important role

The Russian foreign ministry issued two statements this week. The first was an official statement confirming that Israeli Ambassador to Russia Zvi Heifetz was summoned and reprimanded last week after the Israeli Air Force attacked a Hezbollah-bound Iranian weapons convoy in Syria. The second statement confirmed that missiles launched by rebel fighters had struck a building housing the Russian Embassy in Damascus, a mere 15-minute drive from the presidential palace where Syrian President Bashar Assad lives.

The attack by rebel forces in the heart of Damascus may be nothing more than the final death throes of the revolution in Syria, but the fact is that the rebels have proved over and over again that they remain a force to be reckoned with and that a great deal of time and effort will be necessary to bring an end to the war. Assad is therefore still busy with a seemingly endless struggle against his enemies and therefore unlikely to be interested in launching a new conflict with Israel.

Nevertheless, the Israeli attack in Syria last weekend and the assassination of a militia leader in the Syrian Golan Heights loyal to the regime -- which Arab media outlets also attributed to Israel -- have raised concerns of a flare-up along Israel's northern border.

The recent events in Syria are nothing new. For several years, according to foreign and Arab media reports, Israel has habitually targeted Iranian weapons transports to Hezbollah. Last weekend's events were unusual in that this time, the Syrians decided to launch a strategic if obsolete anti-aircraft missile at the Israeli planes and boast about hitting one of them.

The reason behind the Syrians' unusual response is unclear, but the consequent Israeli statements indicate that Israel is determined to continue to block arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah as well as any effort by Iran or Hezbollah to turn the Golan Heights into a base of operations against Israel.

Faced with such determination, Assad is no match for Israel. He can continue to shoot what are, for the most part, outdated and inaccurate missiles at incoming Israeli jets, but any attempt to employ weapons systems, advanced or otherwise, will result in their destruction by Israel's superior power.

Assad, therefore, is not the most important factor in this equation; strategic decision-making has long been out of his hands. Hezbollah plays a part in the Syrian equation, but for now, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has chosen to continue to ignore the Israeli attacks in Syria, as if they were of no significance and require no response. He is not interested in a flare up just now.

Russia, then, in its desire to prevent a confrontation between its friends and allies in the region -- Israel on one hand, and ironically, Hezbollah and Iran on the other -- is the most important actor in this equation. But the Russians need to understand that, as long as they will not guarantee that the Syrian Golan Heights isn't under Iran's or Hezbollah's control should Israel return it to Assad, their ability to ensure long-term stability and calm along the border will be limited.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו