Copycat terrorism

There is no need to look for conspiracies behind Sunday's ramming attack in Jerusalem. This was neither the work of a dangerous, underground terrorist cell, nor was it a sign of a new wave of terrorism. There is also no need to rush to link the soldiers' responses, uneasy as they may make us feel, to the recent conviction on a manslaughter charge of a soldier who shot a subdued terrorist. This was simply and most likely a surprise attack on untrained soldiers.

The attack was waiting to happen. Israel has had ramming attacks in the past, but it was the two biggest ramming attacks of 2016, in Nice and Berlin, which were claimed by the Islamic State group, that were the inspiration for the attacker in Jerusalem, who wanted to kill a large number of people using simple and relatively available means. The lesson to be learned here is that minimal requirements for issuing heavy vehicle licenses need to be adhered to, and that periodic checks on drivers, specifically those with a criminal records, should be conducted.

Bear in mind that even the most rigorous reviews are unable to completely stop a lone terrorist who acts on impulse. Therefore, we must reinforce the physical presence of security forces on the ground. It is unclear why there are no concrete barriers or routine security patrols on Armon Hanatziv promenade, a popular tourist destination that has been targeted multiple times in the past by residents of nearby Jabel Mukaber. Uniformed personnel are a constant target for attacks in the city, but it is also unclear what guidelines the soldiers, cadets in an IDF officers' training course, were given and what security they had, if any.

The cadets' conduct during the attack earned them harsh criticism and mockery on Israeli and Palestinian social media. The initial investigation has been less critical, concluding that several cadets and a civilian engaged the terrorist. Regardless, it seems the combination of surprise and the lack of basic skills shown by the cadets, who were all from non-combat units, led to the painful results, especially after the initial impact, when the driver was able turn around to run over his victims again before he was killed.

In at least two incidents -- in Beersheba's central bus station and in Jerusalem's Ammunition Hill -- the IDF took firm action against soldiers who failed to engage the terrorists. The cadets involved in Sunday's attack may not have been combat soldiers, but they were still expected to try to neutralize the terrorist, especially considering they were all armed.

The IDF must review the reasons for the soldiers' conduct to see whether the cause was indeed confusion -- some soldiers told investigators they initially believed this was a traffic accident -- or whether it was fear.

That being said, the attempts to link their conduct to the Azaria case are ridiculous, and not just because the soldiers themselves said as much. It seems unlikely that in the few seconds the incident lasted that any of the soldiers had the chance to think of Azaria. They feared for their lives, not their freedom.

Despite the embarrassment, the main concern now remains copycat attacks. There is an abundance of targets, as many soldiers and police are deployed in the capital on a daily basis, as well as an abundance of means, as thousands of trucks move through the city at any given moment. It is doubtful anyone knows who drives them. There is no lack of strong emotions either; the situation on the ground is a national and social powder keg. And this is even before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House and begins any attempt to move the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

The main challenge security forces must face is to prevent a renewed outbreak of terrorism. Contrary to what was implied on Sunday, there are no Islamic State cells or operatives in Jerusalem, and the organization has no operational capability in Israel. What we saw was a lone terrorist, armed with a truck and hatred -- a familiar and fatal formula for which we have yet to formulate a conclusive response. This will continue to challenge Israel in the future.

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