The US elections and the Arab world
, עודכן
Donald Trump has very few supporters in the Arab world. He is almost a complete unknown in our region, and his views pertaining to the role Washington should play in it are a virtual mystery. He has said that Muslim immigration to the United States must be prevented, and that Muslims who do live on U.S. soil should be placed under supervision.
Surprisingly, however, the dearth of Trump supporters is not playing into the hands of Hillary Clinton, as it appears she has even less supporters than Trump in our region. Moreover, while his candidacy has mostly aroused apathy, in Clinton's case there is a palpable aversion and reservation. It appears that in the Middle East, too, the lack of support and animosity for Clinton is rooted, incidentally, in the deep familiarity with her.
Trump's statements about Islam sparked almost zero backlash in the Arab world. Arab rulers, of course, are more than capable of differentiating between declarations intended for internal consumption and actual foreign policy. As such, the majority of Arab states are courting Vladimir Putin's Russia despite the manner in which the Muslim minority is treated on its soil, and, incidentally, despite Putin's warm relations with Israel.
Clinton is well known or is at least is identified with the administration of President Barack Obama, in which she served as secretary of state during its first term, and this does not play in her favor.
In Egypt, for example, Obama and Clinton will never be forgiven the cold shoulder they turned toward their loyal ally, Hosni Mubarak, a day after the protest riots erupted in the streets of Cairo. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi also won't forget how the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi was warmly welcomed by Washington; or the Obama administration's criticism of the Egyptian army as it ousted Morsi from power. For the Egyptians, a Trump presidency would be opening a clean slate, while a Clinton victory would mean a step backwards to that murky period in Cairo-Washington relations. It also appears that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wouldn't mind seeing a U.S. president who won't meddle in his affairs and will let him fight the Kurds and his adversaries at home.
Many Syrians will never forgive the Obama administration for its indifference to the tragedy in their country and the resulting devastation. These Syrians have very little expectations of Clinton. On the other hand, Syrian President Bashar Assad and his allies fear Clinton will seek to exhibit assertiveness and act militarily in the country. For Assad and his allies, therefore, Trump is a preferable new page compared to the familiar Clinton.
Obama's mistake, and apparently Clinton's as well, is that they hoped to win the hearts of the region's inhabitants and their rulers. Thus, they adopted a soft tone and identified with their suffering and troubles. In that vein, and in the name of political correctness, they were willing to shun certain Arab rulers, such as Mubarak, and Israel as well. Putin, on the other hand, is not looking for affection. He knows the Arab world will never like or accept a Western leader who persecutes Muslims at home while brutally advancing his interests in their countries abroad. Putin, however, is widely respected and feared, incidentally much like U.S. President George W. Bush in his time.
Politics is the art of the possible. The U.S. plays an important role in our region and we can assume the Arab world will learn to deal with either Trump or Clinton. Whom the Arab world supports is far from unequivocal. Among Arab leaders, though, the answer is clear: Trump.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו