The Lebanese parliament is poised to elect the country's new president on Monday, and if there are no surprises, which are of course the bread and butter of Lebanese politics, the Maronite Christian general Michel Naim Aoun will win the election. Assuming the general keeps his pre-election promises, he will soon appoint his sworn and bitter enemy, Lebanon's Sunni political leader Saad Hariri, as prime minister. And so two years in which Lebanon was without a president and nearly a year in which a transitional government that did not have the trust of the parliament will come to an end. One can assume that the Lebanese politicians can now hold parliamentary elections, after having been repeatedly kicked out of office for the last three years. Aoun's ally and patron, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave the move his blessing, in fact enabling the move in the first place. It seems that Nasrallah will come out the winner in the presidential elections, even if he and his fellow Shiites still have many more years before the offices of president or prime minister, at present reserved for Maronites and Sunnis, are opened up to them. The truth is that the election of the president and the appointment of the prime minister are meaningless. The Lebanese system has in recent years functioned reasonably well without a president, government or elected parliament, and no one has felt their absence. What is important is the fact that Hariri, the leader of the Sunnis in Lebanon and ally of the Saudis, has kowtowed and accepted the dictates of Nasrallah. The same Nasrallah, by the way, who ordered the murder of his father, Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, in February 2005. The white flag waved by Hariri and the Saudis allows Nasrallah and the Iranians to take another step on their path to subjugating Lebanon. After all, Aoun is the servant of all masters, and as is the custom in Lebanon, is concerned primarily with his own interests. In the past, he collaborated with Israel, and as the Israel Defense Forces swooped in on Beirut in the summer of 1982, greeted then-Defense Minister Ariel Sharon in his headquarters. After the Syrians completed their takeover of Lebanon in late 1990, he escaped to a long exile in Paris, where he explained to anyone who would listen that Israel and the West had no better friend in Lebanon. After the murder of Rafiq Hariri and Syria's retreat from the country, Aoun returned as a victor and the most popular leader among the Maronites in Lebanon. But he chose to use his political power to forge a far-reaching alliance with Nasrallah, of all people. The significance of the alliance is that, unlike in the past, when the Maronites placed their faith in France or the U.S. and later even with Israel, Aoun and the Maronites are now placing their faith in Nasrallah and Iran. As Aoun once said, Iran and the Shiites are the rising power in the region, and it is important to join forces with them. With Nasrallah's mediation, Aoun even reconciled with Syrian President Bashar Assad as he began to reign with an iron fist. Throughout the last decade, Hariri has led the Sunni fight in Lebanon against Iran and Hezbollah's attempts to take over the country. Now he believes the time has come to throw in the towel. In Iraq and in Syria, the pendulum is again swinging in favor of the Iranians, who also enjoy the support of the Russians. It is best not to mention the U.S., which voluntarily ceded its status in the region and has ceased to play a significant role. It is surprising that Hariri has forgotten that in Lebanon, presidents serve a six-year presidential term, and that just like in the U.S., they are difficult and even impossible to impeach. In contrast, the prime minister in Lebanon, as in Israel, is dependent on the existence of a majority of support in the parliament -- and can be removed from power with no great effort. Does Hariri wish to become the tail of the Iranian foxes and Nasrallah? If that is the case, he will find the position has already been filled by Aoun. Hariri can, however, serve as a first course in Nasrallah and Aoun's victory feast.
