With a finger on the Syrian pulse

The Israeli-Syrian border received a sudden jolt this week after months of quiet. The scope and frequency of the errant mortar and rocket fire has led Israeli officials to wonder whether the Syrian regime -- now feeling more confident than ever in its fight against the rebels -- is trying to send Israel a threatening message of deterrence.

The Israeli response to these "misfires" from Syria has customarily been minor and mostly for the protocol. Israeli planes have attacked Syrian army positions from where rockets and shells were fired toward Israel, but these attacks never resulted in casualties or real damage on the Syrian side of the border, such that the intention was simply to send a warning message and nothing more.

In a surprising turn, the Syrian regime chose to respond to the Israeli retaliation, firing surface-to-air missiles at the attacking Israeli jets. The regime then rushed to declare it had shot down an Israeli fighter plane and drone. The zeal exhibited by the press in Damascus was reminiscent of a different Syria, the Syria we knew from before the rebellion and civil war there -- a militant Syria aiming to antagonize and aggravate tensions.

It is clear, therefore, that this is no longer the same battered and beaten Syria we became accustomed to in recent years, which never lifted a finger against Israeli forces operating in Syrian territory, for example to stop weapons from being transferred to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

There is a specific, localized explanation for the rising tensions along the Israeli-Syrian border. The regime is currently waging battles against the rebels for control of the Syrian Golan Heights and the Israeli border frontier, where the regime still controls several Druze villages in the northern Golan. These villages are situated opposite the Druze villages on the Israeli side of the border. Both the regime and its adversaries want to score a few final points before the cease-fire goes into effect and freezes the current demarcation lines.

And yet, it is significant to note that even as calm spreads across the rest of the country, however tenuous and temporary, along the border with Israel the regime is rattling its media sabers and exhibiting a lack of consternation over the errant fire spilling into Israel.

It appears that in light of the regime's string of victories in recent weeks and even days, Syrian President Bashar Assad is confident that time is now on his side, and that in the long run, he will be able to defeat his enemies. His self-assuredness is rooted in the backing he receives from Russia, alongside continued support from Hezbollah and Iran.

Assad's willingness to thumb his nose at the international community while sustaining pressure against the rebels is evidence of his growing confidence. According to a United Nations report, Assad has even reverted to using the chemical weapons still in his possession, yet more proof that he stopped "caring" about the Americans a long time ago.

It's possible the heightened tensions on the Golan Heights will die down quickly. Nevertheless, it would behoove Israel to monitor developments on the other side of the border very closely, so we don't wake up one day to a different Assad -- one who is self-assured and determined, with Russian backing, to seek vengeance against his enemies and those who he believes supported them.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו