An unholy alliance

Last week, a report out of Moscow revealed that Russian-made Tu-22M3 supersonic long-range strategic bombers, based at the Hamadan airfield in western Iran, took off from the base to target rebels and the population supporting them in Syria. The move signaled yet another level in the tightening strategic alliance between Tehran and Moscow, forged back in September 2015 in an effort to salvage the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

And still there were those who raised a skeptical eyebrow over Iran's willingness to allow Russia to station advanced warplanes on its soil. After all, in the Middle East, only weak or protectorate states seeking a safeguard normally allow superpowers such as Russia to station forces in their territory. Iran, however, has always been perceived as a country both proud of its independence and as having a long memory that includes an extended period of Russian occupation in the country's north. It appears, though, that Tehran views the deployment of Russian aircraft on its soil as something that only serves to strengthen it, certainly against the United States and its other regional adversaries, among them Israel. Indeed, this reflects neither a capitulation nor a need for protection, but rather a partnership between two powers: Russia, a global power; and Iran, a regional power, with common regional interests and goals.

This move by the Russians and Iranians is first and foremost aimed against Washington. The American response, however, was predictably clumsy. No disaster or catastrophe, not even a human catastrophe on the scale of the war in Syria, nor the immense and irreparable damage to the interests of Washington and its allies in the region, will rouse the Obama administration from its self-imposed slumber to take action. The American administration simply does not want to hear about the Middle East; therefore anything it does is strictly for protocol and the media -- it certainly is not derived from any long-term historical perspective.

As always, the price for this Iranian-Russian partnership and for America's failures is paid by Syria's civilian population, currently in the country's north and in Aleppo, which is being pulverized under waves of Russian bombing runs.

Reports out of Moscow cite damage to Islamic State targets. The images coming out of Syria, however, leave no room for doubt as to who the Russians are harming as they methodically level Syrian cities, seeking to break the backs of the rebels and the population supporting them. If Israel were to do the same in Lebanon or Gaza, or even just one thousandth of a percent of what the Russians are doing in Syria, the entire world would be up in arms.

With that, the Russians are discovering what Israel has already learned -- that an air campaign involving a few dozen aircraft is not enough. The rebels, fighting against a depleted and exhausted Syrian army (on which the Russians depend to fight on the ground), have proven to be exceedingly resilient. Therefore, Moscow is open to a diplomatic initiative that will allow it to achieve its objectives without further entrenching itself in the quagmire.

But Israel could also pay the price of the tightening alliance between Tehran and Moscow. Truth be told, down the road Russia and Iran could find themselves in conflict over whether Assad's Syria, following the defeat of the rebels, will fall under Iranian patronage or Russian. The problem is that in the meantime, Iran is strengthening its position in the region and improving its immunity to military action, whether American or Israeli. Only recently it was reported that Iranian forces have deployed south of Damascus, not far from the Israeli border.

Moreover, the silent partner in the Russian-Iranian alliance, none other than Hezbollah, is also benefiting. The Shiite terrorist organization is acquiring operational expertise, sophisticated weaponry, and indirectly, even if Moscow won't admit it, Russian recognition.

Moscow is not willfully or consciously acting against Israel -- quite the opposite. But the same cannot be said for Iran and Hezbollah. And even if Russia's intentions toward Israel are positive, its actions in the region are exacerbating the Iranian-Hezbollah problem facing Israel. In a moment of heightened tensions or even open conflict, will Russia be able to or even want to prevent a conflagration? The answer lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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