All about language
As soon as an excited Labor leader Isaac Herzog began talking about an amorphous "rare" diplomatic opportunity as the reason his party should join the government, it was clear that he was referring to a something big -- more than just having Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu make another statement in support of the two-state solution.
What was earth-shattering in Netanyahu's 2009 Bar-Ilan University address is just a common refrain in 2016. A cabinet resolution that doubled down on that speech would have supplied the "rare" political drama, but Netanyahu lacks a majority for such resolution with the current makeup of his coalition.
As I wrote on Tuesday, Herzog's efforts may get a boost if his entry is coupled by a new diplomatic initiative that will have at least three anchors: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
Several hours after I wrote this, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi delivered a speech calling for a "warm" peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Netanyahu and Herzog realized Sissi was about to make such a statement, but didn't know when. That is why they welcomed his comments with prepared responses.
Such a statement has not been heard since the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty in 1994. But it is not enough. It is just the raising of the curtain. Now other countries are working on a new diplomatic maneuver in the region. Perhaps they will convene their foreign ministers, who will make a statement based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, leaving room for amendments. Will this be enough for expanding the coalition? It is unclear.
Kulanu MK Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, was right when he observed that the Israeli public makes a superficial distinction between national security matters and foreign policy. Israelis no longer have any interest in the convoluted diplomatic process. There was a time when such statements could radically change things, but this is no longer the case.
There are still outstanding issues between Netanyahu and Herzog: moving forward in the peace process, protecting the Supreme Court as four more justices are appointed, and the natural gas regulatory framework that has been stuck in place for too long. The language on those issues will be harnessed by the proponents of the deal and its detractors to drive home their message. That is why the ground is shaking in both parties.
But whatever unfolds, it won't take place in a vacuum. The Likud ministers who keep attacking Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon -- even through he has cleared the air with Netanyahu over his controversial tatements -- would probably be less aggressive if they knew that the coalition would not expand.
The debate is even more intense among Laborites, who may see their party torn apart if the unity talks move forward (former party leader Shelly Yachimovich, who opposes the move, attacked Herzog on Tuesday but stopped short of threatening a party split). It appears that Herzog and Netanyahu will not be able to reach an agreement by Monday, when the Knesset returns from recess for its summer session.Nor will the Labor Convention have had time to approve a deal by then.
This means that the debate will only intensify next week. Whether or not the coalition expands, the political map will have been redrawn.
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