According to a new poll published on Monday, a majority of the Israeli public is against the formation of a unity government. The poll, published by Channel 2, showed that if elections were held today the Zionist Union would lose seven seats and Likud would shed three. What's new in that poll is that for the first time in years, the public does not support a broad coalition. The idea of a unity government has lost its magic.
Having said that, one can safely assume that the unity talks and the "nocturnal meetings" between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog -- will continue. Since Netanyahu and Herzog are so heavily invested in this effort, they will not abandon it just because of a disapproving public, when uncertainty is in the air.
Netanyahu is sitting on a political and diplomatic volcano. The narrow right-wing government he leads compromises his wiggle room in his relationship with the Obama administration, which has not been generous in its offers for increased military aid, or with French President Francois Hollande, whose proposed peace conference has angered the Israeli government. Netanyahu needs the Zionist Union to help him deal with those relations because a unity government will let him break free, tactically, from the grip of the radical right-wingers in Habayit Hayehudi.
What makes the unity government all the more important for Netanyahu is the ongoing turbulence within his own party. Not only does he have to deal with capricious Likud MK Oren Hazan, but also with the ongoing firestorm surrounding Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon's statements on the military. Ya'alon's clash with Netanyahu has riled up many Likud MKs. The rift is still there, even though Netanyahu and Ya'alon released a joint statement of reconciliation on Monday.
Likud MK David Bitan made a surprising statement just hours after he was announced as the new coalition chairman on Monday. Without any hesitation, he said that Ya'alon could be moved to a different ministry, the Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry for example, if a unity government was announced. This goes to show that the Netanyahu-Ya'alon rough patch is far from over, even though it pales in comparison to what is going on over at the Zionist Union.
According to Herzog, there is a "rare" opportunity for a diplomatic initiative, although he is mum on the details. My guess (this is just sheer speculation) is that Netanyahu will pledge -- perhaps to Egypt or Saudi Arabia or, of course, the United States -- to engage in diplomatic negotiations. This could help Herzog pass a resolution in favor of joining the government when the Labor Convention meets, even if the terms of the unity deal are problematic for the party.
There is also a personal reason for why Herzog would like the unity talks to go ahead. If they succeed -- he will join the government. If not, he will be able to tell his party members that he had to explore that option for the public's sake. This is the least he can do to bolster his position as Labor leader. The chances of forming a unity government are still low, but only impatient pundits would write off the possibility entirely.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו