The Saudi redemption plan

Saudi Arabia launched its Vision 2030 reform plan last week, outlining the royal house's plan to deal with the domestic and regional challenges it faces, primarily the dwindling oil revenue that has so far fueled the kingdom's economy, power and survival.

The year 2030 was not chosen by accident, as it will be the decade when the Saudis mark the centennial of the discovery of oil in the kingdom -- a discovery that brought with it unbelievable riches, especially over the past few decades, which saw oil prices soar, reaching upward of $150 a barrel in 2008, enriching Saudi state coffers by a staggering $500 billion a year.

But the era of cornucopia is about to end. Global dependency on oil is shrinking, and with the discovery of natural gas reserves humanity now has alternative and cleaner energy sources. This has seen oil prices plummet to under $30 a barrel over the past year.

In hindsight, it seems oil did little to advance Saudi Arabia or its people, as it mainly lined the pockets of the members of the royal family. Despite astronomical state revenue, Riyadh remains at the bottom of global rankings of higher education and scientific, technological and economic infrastructure, let alone rankings concerning freedom, progress, democracy and women's rights.

The Saudis, it seems, used their oil revenue primarily to maintain the existing social and political status quo. The royal house has spent a fortune on preaching radical, al-Qaida-style Wahhabi ideology via the school system it has funded for Muslim communities in central Asia and Europe. This, however, has proven to be a double edged sword, as many of these schools' graduates have joined the ranks of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, both of which have the kingdom in their crosshairs.

The economic and social difficulties are only two of the challenges Saudi Arabia currently faces.

The oil crisis is compounded by the threat of domestic terrorism and the external threat posed by Iran, and looking around, the Saudis are without allies. After all, the century of oil riches also represents a hundred years of American involvement in the kingdom, during which Riyadh could turn to its patrons in Washington in its times of need.

The Obama administration, however, had decided to bow out of the region, as the U.S. clearly prefers cultivating new ties with Iran rather than maintaining ties with sinking powers such as Saudi Arabia.

The reforms included in Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 indicate that some in the kingdom's leadership understand the precarious situation at hand. This plan seeks to bolster Saudi Arabia and cement its position as a key regional power capable of defending itself based on instruments alternative to oil, such as drawing on its human capital and its advanced economic system.

Vision 2030 includes setting up a $2 trillion investment fund, to invest in global economy, the partial privatization of the Saudi oil industry, absorbing educated Muslim and Arab immigrants via a Saudi "green card," as well as instating a wide range of domestic economic and social reforms, including cutting welfare benefits, which are essentially bribes given to the population, and promoting women's rights.

The main issue remains realizing this vision, especially when it comes to developing human capital. As long as religious circles continue to rule life in Saudi Arabia, bribes in the form of generous subsidies will continue to line the Saudi people's pockets, women's exclusion from the public sphere will continue, and the Saudi people will continue to be deprived of fundamental freedoms. This will cast doubt over Riyadh's ability to push the kingdom forward, regardless of how much money it has in its coffers.

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