Trump rises, Rubio challenges

Something dramatic happened in South Carolina: Businessman Donald Trump is no longer a phenomenon but rather a leading candidate with a real chance of winning the Republican Party nomination for president.

Now that Gov. Jeb Bush has pulled out of the race, Sen. Marco Rubio is the alternative to Trump and the favorite of establishment, with Sen. Ted Cruz rounding out the Republican candidates. This three-man race is turning into the Republican establishment's last chance to see a candidate other than Trump contend for the office of president. Without question, the 2016 presidential race is revealing a new America.

Trump, the Yankee from New York, has not dropped in the polls, not even in the southern, religious, conservative state of South Carolina. A second victory in a row was predicted for the once-liberal Trump, and he came through. New Hampshire and South Carolina, so different, so geographically distant, not only have the same flag and language in common -- but now Donald Trump as well. And that tells us something about where things are headed. It reveals quite a bit, in fact. After Columbus, Trump is now rediscovering America -- for himself and for us.

Trump is right to be optimistic ahead of the Nevada caucuses, and mainly ahead of Super Tuesday. Evangelists, who represent 75% of the Republican voting public in South Carolina, voted overwhelmingly in his favor, and gave him all 50 delegates. This is extremely encouraging for Trump, assuring him further successes. USA Today recently ran an article reminding us that "history is on his side." Indeed, since 1980, every candidate who won New Hampshire and South Carolina has always ended up receiving his party's nomination. We know the elephant represents the Republicans. This time they have outdone themselves -- Trump has become the proverbial elephant in the room.

The situation for Trump, however, is still somewhat problematic (even if these are rich people's problems): To win the White House he will need to expand his circle of support, which means he may have to placate the establishment to an extent. On the other hand, the strategy that has gotten him this far stipulates that he continue bashing everybody, all the time. What will he do? Trump will have to gamble.

Cruz: Ideology

Even if he didn't win any delegates, Rubio was able to reverse his terrible showing in New Hampshire, and, more importantly, his poor performance at the eighth Republican debate. Finishing in second place (mere votes ahead of Cruz), along with Bush's resignation, places him in the position of being the sane candidate. From the outset, the polls predicted that he is the person who could beat Hillary Clinton in November, if that situation should arise.

As of now, in this three-man race with the insane Trump and the arch-conservative ideologist Cruz, Rubio appears to be the only "sane" candidate from the perspective of the pundits and the establishment. It is the voters, however, who count, and in 2016 all bets are off. It seems that common sense is on sabbatical this year.

We are undoubtedly past the point where the losers have much to say: Of the 17 Republican candidates who began the race, essentially only three remain. We now need to see whether Rubio can attract the votes that would have gone to Bush and the other drop-outs. In the meantime, the polls continue to predict good things for Trump, including in the 12 states, many of them southern, participating in Super Tuesday votes. But these polls were conducted before the South Carolina primary.

Another encouraging fact for Rubio is that Trump, despite his resounding victory, only won one-third of the vote. What's less encouraging is that Rubio still did not win. America, need I remind you, loves a winner. A silver medal in Nevada, or in any of the southern states thereafter, won't cut it. Rubio needs to start winning.

Generally speaking, the primaries in Nevada (Democrats) and South Carolina (Republicans) were dramatic and extremely significant. Big names are no longer enough for the American people. Bush and Clinton are names from the past, even if Hillary Clinton did come away with a win. She is looking more and more like her camp's default option. Bush, meanwhile, who spent $15 million in South Carolina and even enlisted the services of his older brother, simply faded. He was wise to drop out. The establishment's darling was becoming a hindrance.

The Republicans are now looking to Nevada, while the Democrats are headed to South Carolina. Things are starting to heat up, one step before the big prize. Trump is loving every minute of the ride and is becoming more confident by the day. Among the Democrats, Clinton is pinning her hopes on African-American voters to help her maintain her momentum. Bernie Sanders is also counting on black voters, the younger ones this time. These 2016 elections are without a doubt something new, something different, and something we have never seen before. Suddenly, anyone following the votes is liable to feel a little like Christopher Columbus.

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