Cease-fire? Only between bombings

The Russians and the Americans agreed to a cease-fire in Syria on Friday. Sound promising? No, not really. Moscow's demands make this cease-fire particularly untenable. Under the agreement, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar Assad's army are permitted to continue attacking rebels -- and to protect Assad by doing so. The word rebel can be interpreted in very broad terms. Let's hope the Americans actually read these agreements before signing them.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev spoke at a security conference in Munich on Saturday about the "new cold war," wondering whether the year is 2016 or 1962. Incidentally, considering the current balance of power in Syria between Russia and the U.S., it is very fortunate that it wasn't U.S. President Barack Obama who was in the Oval Office facing Khrushchev in the 1960s. The world might look very different today if that had been the case.

Late into Thursday night, the Russians and Americans searched for a way out of the Syrian nightmare. Following the failure of the Geneva talks, any solution would suffice. They wanted an agreement so badly, they skipped over the content.

The deal's most glaring problem is the definition of a terrorist group. There are presently hundreds of armed groups operating in Syria. The deal itself does not apply to the Islamic State group or the al-Qaida affiliated Nusra Front. These groups are still fair game. In fact, action against them is encouraged. The problem is that terrorist groups viewed as legitimate by the West, but not by Moscow and Assad, have now joined the ranks of the Nusra Front. The result is that Moscow will continue bombing any group posing a threat to Assad. In essence, this cease-fire will only be in effect between bombings.

Moscow's endgame is to have only two camps in Syria: Assad on one side and ISIS on the other. Then we'll see with which side the West aligns, and which side Washington chooses.

Washington's ambivalence toward the unfolding developments, in contrast with Russia's focused determination, has led to the appalling situation we see in Syria today. Assad is already talking about reconquering all of Syria. If this dream becomes a reality, his regime will get back a far more demographically palatable country in terms of the significantly altered ratio between Alawites and Sunnis.

Up until last summer this nightmare scenario was unimaginable, but then the Russians intervened and the Americans barely lifted a finger.

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