Rubio's momentum

Marco Rubio gave a victory speech in Iowa. That might sound astonishing, given that the junior senator from Florida finished third, but the way in which Rubio closed a big two-digit gap between himself and his party rivals Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz in the space of a few days suddenly makes him the Republican institution's ideal candidate. In Iowa, the winner finishes third.

Rubio is suddenly being portrayed as the party's savior, the man who can win not only his party primaries at the Republican convention in Ohio in June, but also the general election in November. According to a CNN poll published Tuesday, 44% of respondents said they believed that Rubio had the greatest chance of beating the Democrats to the White House.

Apart from that, we also had an important victory for conservative candidate Cruz in Iowa, as well as a loss for Trump, the "man who doesn't know how to lose."

The Democrats, on the other hand, gave us a draw with a victory for Hillary Clinton -- not a source of pride for the former secretary of state, who was a few votes away from losing to socialist Bernie Sanders and reliving her defeat and humiliation in the same state in 2008.

Iowa doesn't represent America. Iowa represents Iowa. But Iowa has its own rules. And Iowa truly believes in its political influence. Because of that, Trump might have made a mistake in deciding to forgo the last Iowa debate. It apparently cost him a few percentage points that kept him from winning.

Iowa, as we've said, isn't decisive, but it can demonstrate trends. Sometimes it's enough for a candidate to make a good showing in states like Iowa and New Hampshire to go far. That's exactly what Bill Clinton did in 1992 when he finished second and wound up first. At the time, Clinton dubbed himself "the comeback kid." It looks like Clinton's definition fits Rubio today.

Rubio's achievement is also a coup for the Republican institution, which people so enjoy eulogizing, especially in the liberal camp.

Doubtless, Democrats and liberals prefer to play up the tea party and Trump, because they think it will be easy for Hillary Clinton, for example, to run against them and win. Rubio is another story. We can assume that many donors will be affected by Rubio's success in Iowa and donate to his campaign. It's a long way to Ohio in June. The institution and the private donors have a decisive role to play. Rubio knows that, which is why he made the victory speech.

Cruz understood very well that a state in which two-thirds of Republican voters are evangelical Christians was his opportunity. Cruz's devotion to the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage could deter voters in the general election, but not in Iowa. Here, his arch-conservatism is an advantage.

Cruz is actually betting on Super Tuesday on March 1, the date on which 12 states will hold primary elections, including Texas. Cruz believes that by then, he'll widen the electoral gap before the next stage, which will likely be more difficult.

But in Iowa, there were more losers than winners. Donald Trump, the man who said, "Who remembers who comes in second-" finished second. His speech in Iowa after the results were announced was suddenly the speech of a politician. Regular. Not that of a billionaire, not that of someone who was so sure of himself. All he had left to remind Americans that he was still himself was the idea he blurted out: "Maybe I'll buy a farm in Iowa." He can buy a farm, but not a victory.

We can add Jeb Bush to the list of losers. Iowa isn't a state he was expected to win, but he wanted to minimize the damage. He spent millions there, more than any other Republican candidate; and spent days and days there. In the end, he won the support of 2.8% of Republican voters. Bush is vying with Rubio for the support of the party. On Monday, he got a smackdown from both sides.

And then there were the Democrats. Clinton avoided embarrassment by a margin of 0.2%. There's a fair chance that she will lose in New Hampshire next week, because that state borders Sanders' home state of Vermont. Sanders is taking encouragement from the near-tie, as well as polls in the next state to vote. But the next stages will be hard for them both. Clinton will have difficulty with the liberal wing of the party, and Sanders with the Democratic institution.

Clinton has another problem, the FBI investigation into the secret emails in her personal account. The voters might think for a moment about what would happen if she wins but can't run because of an indictment, for example. Hillary Clinton had a hard time in 2008. In the meantime, she's not having an easy time as a candidate in 2016.

Iowa is behind us. Some of the candidates (Hillary, Trump) had a painful time of it. Others (Rubio) came through unexpectedly.

And to think, it is only the beginning.

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