There is a link between the capture of the Hamas cell that we learned about last week and the attempt by Hezbollah to carry out a terrorist attack on an IDF patrol along the northern border. In both cases, the planned attacks were either thwarted in advance or ended without casualties, but no less important is the fact that deterrence is apparently working against these organizations. Both are uninterested in sparking an escalation in hostilities along their respective borders, and yet both insist on playing with fire and risking a conflagration. Hamas and Hezbollah have no interest in seeking a large conflict with Israel. Hamas is still licking its wounds from the previous rounds of violence, and despite its efforts to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip, the coastal enclave is still in ruins. Hamas is also more regionally isolated than it has been in many years. Even its ally, Turkey, is trying to make amends with Israel. Hezbollah's situation is none the better. In the past few years, the Shiite terrorist organization has been mired in the Syrian mud, at the cost of over a thousand of its best fighters. This is a significant number for an organization with only a few dozen thousand fighters in its ranks. Additionally, the civil war in Syria has taken a heavy financial toll and has brought radical Islamist terror to the streets of Lebanon's Shiite towns and villages. The last thing these organizations want or need is an all-out war with Israel. And yet both have shown a willingness to play with fire and ignore certain warnings, even when it's clear to them that the flames they are fanning can spiral out of control. In recent years, Hezbollah has worked to establish a loyal network along the Israel-Syria border on the Golan Heights. Allegedly, it is doing this to avoid a clash with Israel on the Lebanese border. But the fact remains that one year ago, following the assassination of Jihad Mughniyeh, and last week, following the assassination of Samir Kuntar, Hezbollah responded in a manner that could have potentially sparked a regional war. Luckily, last week's incident was an utter failure for Hezbollah, but it was not far from ending much differently. Last year, Israel absorbed a similar attack without repercussions, as it has done on several occasions in the past; yet by doing so Israel is sending the wrong message to Hezbollah, that it is prepared to accept such attacks and provocations in the Har Dov border region. Indeed, Israel's ability and willingness to continue sustaining these types of attacks is also limited. Hamas, for its part, is also maintaining a quiet posture along the Gaza border. It is even combating radical Islamist elements seeking to establish a foothold there, essentially because these elements pose a threat first and foremost to Hamas. It is not cracking down on partnering Palestinian factions, which on occasion try launching rockets at Israel. But Hamas also allows its people in the West Bank, whether under direct instruction and direction from the group's leadership, or through encouragement and moral support, to mobilize terrorist activity aimed at Israel. These are not the same lone-wolf attackers we have grown accustomed to in recent months, but organized cells whose members plan their course of action in advance and are therefore far more deadly. Case in point: Almost two years ago, as we know, a Hamas terror cell in the West Bank abducted and murdered three teenage boys, which led to Operation Protective Edge. The attempted terrorist attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah come with a clear message. Despite the widespread assumption in Israel that both organizations are deterred and will do everything possible to avoid a head-on collision with Israel, the facts tell a different story. Both organizations are willing to play with fire and also to pay the price of their pyromania. They may not want a full-fledged fight with Israel, but they are not as deterred from one as people here tend to think. It appears that effective deterrence comes with an expiration date. It stands to reason, then, that amid such a reality, additional terrorist attacks are merely a matter of time. And we can only hope that these, too, end in failure and do not instigate a new round of regional hostilities.
