Israel must act wisely
"Out of the north an evil shall break forth," the prophet Jeremiah said. This warning has been sounded for quite some time. Israel has been preparing for an escalation along the northern border for decades, with occasional conflagrations, but there is a tense waiting game as of late.
The Hezbollah attack on Israeli troops on Monday (by means of a roadside bomb) was meant to avenge the killing of the terrorist Samir Kuntar, which Hezbollah has attributed to Israel. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who felt compelled to act in response to the assassination, may believe Monday's attack exacted the right amount of revenge. But perhaps there is still unfinished business over Kuntar. So has Jeremiah's prophecy been fulfilled, or is there more to come?
The conventional wisdom is that both sides want to put Monday's attack behind them and just go through the motions of such an escalation. Nasrallah may ultimately feel content if Israel acts wisely, by making sure Monday's attack is not portrayed as a weak response to Kuntar's killing. Israel must show restraint and wisdom. Israeli officials should tell the world that Hezbollah managed to get very close to the troops and plant the bomb with great skill. This should be enough and will serve Israel well. The Israel Defense Forces, in return, delivered on its pledge to retaliate forcefully for any provocation on Monday.
Of course, Monday's attack must be viewed within the context of the greater political and military upheaval in the region. Iran and Hezbollah are propping up the Syrian regime; Saudi Arabia, one of Iran's two main antagonists, would like to hurt Syria's allies, casting the ayatollahs as Islamic State supporters. Although it is clear where everyone stands, the battle lines are convoluted and murky. Some of the "players" are on both teams, like an investor who wants to diversify the portfolio to reduce risk.
In light of these regional tensions, Saudi Arabia's execution of Shiite spiritual leader Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr elicited a reaction greater then that generated by the death of an ayatollah. Iran would have let the execution slide had Saudi Arabia worked to drive up the price of oil -- helping Iranian exports -- but it chose not to do so.
Experts who have been following Riyadh-Tehran relations cannot say whether the latest Saudi maneuver -- severing ties with Iran -- was planned all along or just a consequence of a downward spiral that diplomats on both sides are unable to control.
The fact that some of Saudi Arabia's Arab allies followed suit by downgrading relations with Iran could suggest this was the plan all along, as part of a well-coordinated strategic effort that could continue well into the future, creating a complex situation.
Not only will this further the divide between Sunnis and Shiites, it will also embarrass U.S. President Barack Obama, who has sided with Iran over America's ally in Riyadh.
The current schism in the Arab world has nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But Israel may very well find itself unwillingly dragged into this mess, particularly by its northern neighbors. The bottom line is this: Israel has a vested interest in forging ties with Saudi Arabia and this may become a possibility when Israelis and Palestinians resume negotiations.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו