The Saudis couldn't care less about us

The new year began with major turbulence in the Persian Gulf as Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions, and the overall Sunni-Shiite divide, escalated from threatening rhetoric to concrete action.

The Sunni-dominated Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, executed 47 people in a single day, including prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr (it is unclear exactly when the executions took place). This provoked outrage among the Shiite masses in Iran, who took to the streets and firebombed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. There was also rioting near the kingdom's consulate in the holy city of Mashhad. On a political level, the Iranian regime promised it would retaliate in kind for the execution.

The Persian Gulf is not just about oil (the price of which, by the way, has been in freefall); it is one big powder keg that may very well set the region ablaze. And it once again debunks the notion that everything in this region can be linked to Israel, "the occupation," or the Palestinian "tragedy."

The roots of these religious and historical tensions go back to the seventh century, to the battle of Karbala in 680 C.E., one of the most important events in Islamic history and in Shiite Islam in particular. In that battle, Muhammad's grandson, Husayn ibn Ali, was killed when he tried to unseat the caliph, Yazid I.

While that battle led to centuries of Sunni-Shiite animosity, the recent executions are a response to contemporary developments. It suffices to look back at the regional turmoil of 2011-2012 (the so called "Arab Spring") and to 2015, when the budget deficit in the Saudi Arabia grew to historic proportions, to understand the agitation and concern in the Saudi royal family. Sheikh Nimr was more than just a religious authority. He was a spiritual leader who served as a mouthpiece for the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, a community considered to be a threat by King Salman bin Abdulaziz (who became king a year ago).

Nimr, who was one of the most vocal critics of the regime, was arrested on multiple occasions on the grounds that his sermons stoked tensions and destabilized the regime. Shiites comprise less than 15% of the population in Saudi Arabia, and the vast majority of them live in the oil-rich Eastern Province. They claim, with some justification, that they have not gotten their fair share of the pie, and the Sunnis look down on them. The Shiites are usually denied permits to build mosques and are turned down when they apply for jobs in the public sector, especially in schools.

Nimr, who was emboldened by the events of the Arab Spring, helped stir unrest several years ago, after the Saudis helped the king of Bahrain quell a Shiite insurgency. At the time, Nimr said that Bahrain's Shiites should topple their king and then incorporate the eastern part of Saudi Arabia.

In July 2012, Nimr was arrested during a violent demonstration in which two of his supporters died. When the cleric's wife died that year, this generated even greater sympathy for Nimr among Shiites. In 2014, a Saudi court sentenced him to death for foreign meddling and illicit possession of weapons, although he had long insisted he was not an Iranian agent.

Syria, Yemen and Iraq have all descended into chaos; Lebanon and Jordan have also been destabilized. This has not been lost on the Saudi regime, and it fears a similar ordeal. The riots of 2012 and the increasing ties between Shiites on both sides of the Persian Gulf are a threat to the House of Saud, and the lack of support from Washington has definitely not helped.

A Western official who recently visited Riyadh said the officials he spoke with did not even mention Israel, the Palestinians or the Saudi-sponsored Arab Peace Initiative from 2002. Those in Israel who keep waxing poetic on the merits of that plan should keep in mind that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is too busy fighting for its survival. It has other fish to fry.

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