One day after the assassination of terrorist Samir Kuntar, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah rushed to the television cameras to address his subordinates and supporters in an effort to salvage his damaged reputation. Nasrallah, as expected, directed his threats at Israel, to which foreign media outlets (and he) attributed the assassination of the loathsome murderer. Kuntar may not have been an official Hezbollah operative, but a Druze affiliate of the organization acting on its behalf, and his assassination took place on Syrian soil rather than Lebanese territory, but nevertheless, Nasrallah turned him into a Hezbollah symbol when a decade ago he dragged the entire region into the Second Lebanon War in order to secure Kuntar's release from Israeli prison. It is clear now that Nasrallah was incapable of safeguarding his "beloved son." Kuntar's assassination finds Nasrallah at a low point. His organization is up to its neck in the Syrian civil war, losing hundreds of fighters sent to preserve the flailing regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has also taken a hefty financial toll, as Iran's ability and willingness to continue supporting the group with billions of dollars has been called into question. And above all else, the war has already spilled over into Lebanon, reaching Hezbollah strongholds. Case in point: the suicide bombing carried out by Islamic State terrorists last month in the heart of Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood, which killed dozens of Shiites and wounded hundreds more. Hezbollah's ability to launch missiles at Israel is apparently still intact, despite Israel's efforts (according to foreign reports) to target the transfer of advanced weapons to the group. After all, the group received the thousands of missiles it currently possesses immediately following the 2006 Second Lebanon War. However, Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has significantly diminished the group's ability to withstand a potential war with Israel. Nasrallah is well aware of the situation, hence his remarks on Monday in the aftermath of Kuntar's assassination. In his speech, which was mostly dedicated to addressing the group's problems in Lebanon and beyond while only briefly touching on Kuntar, Nasrallah spoke in general and noncommittal terms of avenging the assassination at some future point. Ultimately, Nasrallah knows that the Lebanese public, including even his own supporters, will not accept Hezbollah provoking war with Israel in southern Lebanon, especially given the fact that Kuntar, who was not a member of Hezbollah, was killed in Syria. In recent years, Kuntar worked under the indirect guidance of Iran and Hezbollah, recruiting operatives from among the Druze population on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights to carry out attacks against Israel. Over that time, several of these recruits have been killed, and in most cases there was no retaliation whatsoever for their deaths. To be sure, it is doubtful that Assad is even aware of these activities or capable of controlling them. Iran and Hezbollah, which never viewed Kuntar's Druze recruits as their own flesh and blood, merely exploited them to suit their own needs. This was not the case with Jihad Mugniyeh, a senior Hezbollah commander who was assassinated by Israel about a year ago, in response to which the group carried out a terrorist attack in the Har Dov area between the Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese borders. On the other hand, Nasrallah is afraid that ignoring Israel's actions will invite it to escalate its efforts against Hezbollah, which is why he launched the volley of missiles at Israel in response to Kuntar's assassination. However, the last thing Nasrallah wants right now is a fight with Israel, which would distract him from his primary objective of saving the Assad regime, potentially jeopardizing it altogether. Indeed, it makes no sense to have sacrificed hundreds of fighters in the battle to salvage the Assad regime, only to squander any hope of success by plunging the region into all-out conflict. Kuntar's assassination, meanwhile, which Hezbollah attributes to Israel, brings an end to one chapter in a long story that is far from over. Nasrallah and his Iranian patrons will continue their efforts to establish a foothold on the Syrian Golan Heights and will continue trying to turn that area into a base from which to attack Israel. The next incident on the northern border is only a matter of time.
