Russian-Turkish relations are quickly deteriorating, but not to worry -- Presidents Vladmir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will pause a step before the abyss. They both have more to lose than to gain from a world war, or even from a limited military confrontation. The problem is that similar to the fallout between Turkey and Israel over the Mavi Marmara incident, this crisis too is emotionally charged and mostly personal. But in contrast to Israel, whose leadership countered Erdogan with calm and equanimity, this time he has picked a fight with Putin, his carbon copy when it comes to diplomatic conduct. Indeed, the personal aspect is first and foremost at the root of the Russian-Turkish crisis. These two leaders, whom we will refrain from calling megalomaniacs out of politeness, have grand aspirations. Czar Putin wants to return Russia to the days of its imperialistic greatness, when it ruled over continents and seas but always looked further southward, toward the warm waters of the Black and Mediterranean seas, which remain unfrozen in the winter. This encroachment south, of course, always came at the expense of the Ottoman Empire. Sultan Erdogan, for his part, wants to return Turkey to the days of Ottoman rule, when sultans held sway over the Middle East and beyond. But aside from the personal aspects, this is also, of course, a political matter. Russia is reclaiming control of the Middle East. It is establishing a strong foothold in Syria and has forged a bond with Egyptian President Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. Like many others in the region, el-Sissi may be dependent on American economic support, but he doesn't hide the fact that he trusts Putin more than he does U.S. President Barack Obama. The problem is that Erdogan, too, had ambitions of expanding his sphere of influence into Egypt and Syria. After all, when Egypt was under the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood and ousted President Mohammed Morsi, it was obedient to Erdogan, until the arrival of el-Sissi. In Syria, meanwhile, the Islamist rebels, supported by Turkey, had seized the upper hand, at least in the western sector, until the Russians and Iranians began to intervene last September. As usual, there is also an ideological aspect to this confrontation. Putin, on behalf of secular enlightenment, wants to fight the war against radical Islam, which also poses a threat to Russia. Erdogan, in the meantime, is in denial, much like the Obama administration, about the very existence of Islamist terror and its goal of propagating political Islam throughout the entire Middle East (Hamas in Gaza, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the Islamic Movement in Syria). There is no question that Putin currently has the upper hand -- the result of the West's weakness in confronting the terrorist onslaught against them. No European country, nor the United States for that matter, has any real answer to the Islamic State threat. Therefore, they are comfortable leaning on Putin, who is willing to send his troops into Syria to kill and be killed, to save them. The problem, of course, is that Putin is actually pummeling the moderate Syrian rebels, who presently pose the most immediate threat to the Assad regime. But no one in the West cares about that, nor does anyone appear particularly troubled by the hundreds, and perhaps thousands, of civilian casualties left in the wake of Russian airstrikes. The Russian plane was shot down because it violated Turkish airspace. Ultimately the Russians do whatever they want. Their planes, incidentally, are also flying near the Israeli-Syrian border, but no one here would ever consider shooting down a Russian plane. In Turkey, however, the Russians aren't seen only as helping the enemy, but as the enemy itself. Once the fiery public speeches end, however, diplomacy will have its turn. Turkey can turn Syria into a living hell for the Russians, if it decides to help the rebels fighting there. Russia, for its part, can apply economic pressure on Turkey. Moreover, Turkey's ability to trust its Western allies in NATO, as we know, is somewhat limited. As of now, it appears the tensions and bad blood will persist as long as the Russians continue fighting in Syria on behalf of Assad, and if Turkey decides to help the Syrian rebels currently being targeted by Russia.
