The good news from the weekend is that despite the potential for an explosion, there was no escalation in Judea and Samaria or the Gaza Strip. The bad news is that all the signs indicate that the wave of terrorism and knife incidents not only continued, it is also far from over. At this stage, Israel and the Palestinian Authority are determined to contain the incidents and do everything possible to prevent them from sliding into a wide-scale conflict. Israel's care not to disrupt the life of Palestinians in the West Bank (Palestinian workers are still allowed into Israel as usual and the roads are open) and the marginal involvement of the Palestinian public in the riots also contribute to those efforts. The reports sometimes create the impression that there is an actual war being waged between Israeli soldiers and protesters, but in actuality we're talking about relatively small events -- 100 to 200 people in each clash, compared to thousands in the past -- that the Israel Defense Forces, working in conjunction with the Palestinian security apparatus, has dealt with fairly easily. As long as these demonstrations end with no casualties, escalation is checked. So the IDF Central Command is devoting countless hours to briefing troops and making sure that senior officers are stationed at every hot sport to help defuse the situation. The IDF believes that at this time, moving four battalions to the West Bank as backup will be enough to deal with the situation. Changes will be made only if the riots grow worse, or if the main dangers -- Fatah's Tanzim and the activists in the refugee camps -- join the violence. The IDF Southern Command also managed to contain events over the weekend, despite the violent clashes and the number of Palestinians wounded. Hamas initiated the violence. Seeking to throw its hat in the ring, it pressured civilians to face off with Israeli forces and approach the border fence, even damaging it and in a few places breaking through. But at the same time, Hamas refrained from causing the situation to deteriorate further by firing rockets at Israel (the assessment being that the ones that were fired were not launched by Hamas). It's likely that Hamas will keep things from escalating during the next few days, depending on the situation in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria. If necessary, it might make a symbolic show of strength, given the decision to deploy an Iron Dome battery to Beersheba. In light of all this, it appears that Israel's main problem lies within the Green Line and its own citizens. All the terrorist attacks committed these past few days were within Israel proper, mostly by Israeli Arabs or residents of east Jerusalem (who enjoy a special residency status and carry Israeli ID cards). Even the Palestinians from the West Bank who did carry out attacks were in Israel illegally, which is why Israel has not closed off the West Bank -- it understands that people who have work have something to lose, and is worried that collective punishment of civilians will draw more Palestinians into violence. At the same time, the continued terrorist attacks demand the highest level of alert in Israel's cities. The main burden in the field falls on the shoulders of the Israel Police. Offstage, the Shin Bet security agency is making a tremendous effort to thwart attacks with only partial success given that most of the terrorists are lone wolves who don't inform anyone else of their plans. These attempts are expected to continue, and can be kept down only through a joint effort on the security and diplomatic fronts that includes clarifying the situation on and reaching agreements about the Temple Mount. As far as that goes, the partial silence by government ministers is encouraging, and the Arab MKs who cancelled their planned visit to the Temple Mount did well in showing some responsibility. On the sidelines of these events, a memorial ceremony for former IDF Chief of Staff and Defense Minister Moshe Dayan is scheduled to take place today on Moshav Nahalal. It's doubtful that any of the nation's leaders will find the time to make it, but this is just the time for the Dayan context to put the current situation into perspective: In contrast to 1967, Israel won't get in and get out, and in contrast to 1973, Israel's existence is not in peril. We need determination, but we also need consideration, patience, diplomatic savvy and political pragmatism to overcome the current wave of violence, knowing that it won't be the last.
