Earlier this week, many in Israel were cautiously optimistic that the current wave of Palestinian violence was ebbing. On Wednesday, however, that optimism was replaced by deep concern. Despite the fact that both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have a clear interest in restoring calm, they may be dragged into further escalation. The string of attacks which occurred on Wednesday included nothing we had not already seen in recent weeks -- attempted stabbings, shootings and vehicular rammings. No terrorist group appears to be orchestrating these attacks. But what ties them all together is the atmosphere. Despite the efforts by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to calm the situation, more and more Palestinian are feeling motivated to pick up a knife and go on a killing spree. The copycat phenomenon feeds off a self-sustaining cycle. Only luck (and alert reactions) prevented a loss of Israeli lives on Wednesday. But our luck may not hold. A deadly attack could, God forbid, take place at any time. Given the current state of affairs, Israel faces two options. On one hand, it could be satisfied with the security measures it has already implemented (reinforced troop levels in Judea and Samaria, higher police alert levels inside the Green Line and tighter security cooperation with Palestinian Authority security forces) and hope things simmer down. Or Israel could up its military pressure on the Palestinians and act to impose calm. At the moment, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, backed by top security officials, prefer the first option. They are rightly concerned that additional closures and checkpoints in Judea and Samaria would inflame the situation, with more Palestinians taking to the streets and carrying out attacks, which could spark a wide-scale conflagration. However, the second option could also lead to the same result if further Palestinian terrorist attacks prompt harsher Israel responses. Israel must do everything possible to avoid an escalation. Demonstrating restraint is important, both in terms of diplomacy and politics. Some believe that restraint hurts Israel's deterrence, but that is an acceptable price to pay right now. A third intifada, which could involve the Gaza Strip and Israel's Arab community, would cost us much more. Israel's ability to maintain restraint will be influenced by a number of factors, including the scope of further Palestinian terrorist attacks and the tone of statements by top officials on both sides (particularly regarding the Temple Mount). Direct dialogue between Netanyahu and Abbas could create an appearance of shared interests, which might help cool tempers. And most of all, what we need is luck.
